Rhodri Gets Tough

So finally, at long last, after 8 years and one month into his job, Rhodri Morgan grows some cahoones. In an essay he wrote for a new book on Welsh politics the First Minister finally bites back at a few parts of the Labour Party that he has usually lain down before.

Firstly he launches a pretty damning critic of the Blair and Brown legacy. He ridicules Brown's attempts to convince us all that being British means tolerance and decency by pointing to New Labour's record of:

"bulging prisons, record incarceration of children, fortress-like asylum policies, and a progressive erosion of the distinction between ‘anti-social’ behaviour (where solutions ought to be sought primarily through social policy)and criminal conduct (which falls to be dealt with by the criminal justice system) provides an uncertain background of evidence.”

Damning stuff. He also criticises the attack on Iraq, something which he embarrassingly refused to do a few years back (when it actually mattered). But Rhodri isn't finished yet, he then turns to his own Welsh party.

Echoing views that Eluned Morgan and Carwyn Jones said in February's Welsh Labour Conference (but which they later backtracked on in the Western Mail letter page) Rhodri states that a big reason for Labour's collapse in West Wales (they do not hold an Assembly seat West of Swansea) was their public image of being anti-Welsh language. While Rhodri is careful enough to state that he doesn't believe his party is anti-Welsh language his admission that:

"it would be foolish to deny that, from time to time, strands in the party have acted in ways which have given it credibility"

is as subtle as a sledgehammer. Strands in the party? Now I wonder who he could possibly be talking about there?

It's very interesting to see Rhodri's admission that the Tories have managed to reposition themselves in front of Labour in the "pro-Welsh language" front. This would have been unimaginable only a few years ago, but there's no doubt that Welsh-speakers now feel that Labour is the party who opposes their quest for more rights not the Tories.

There are two reasons for this; yes the Tories, in the Assembly at least, have repositioned themselves well to the fore of Labour on this issue and, as Welsh-speaking Tories will always be quick to remind you, it was the Tories that (eventually) gave us the Welsh Language Act and S4C.

Perhaps more importantly though, they only have 3 Welsh MP's at the moment. So while Labour's numerous MP's lash out at the Welsh language from London, their Tory counterparts don't get much publicity when they do the same. So while the Tories in the Assembly have managed to redeem themselves to some extent, their MP's haven't - they're just being ignored. When, as is likely, the Tories find themselves with many additional Welsh MP's come the next election, it will be interesting to see if we'll still be thinking of them as pro-Welsh language?

So with the looming Cardiff v Westminster fight is about to begin over the Welsh Language LCO (believe me, the Housing LCO bickering is merely an undercard compared to the mess that the next one could cause) Rhodri has drawn a pretty big line in the sand. The question is what side of that line will the reminder of his party stand?

Crackpot Coup

I guess there's no choice but to comment on this story today. According to the Mule senior Labour figures are getting very concerned about the lack of quality candidates for Rhodri's job once he retires. According to one such source:

They all have fundamental weaknesses and would probably not be considered for major promotion if they were members of the UK Parliament.

So what do these unnamed mystery but oh so important figure want to do about it. Apparently their plan is to either give Neath AM Gwenda Thomas a peerage to vacate her seat or convince ill Clwyd South AM Karen Sinclair to retire. They would then parachute in disgraced ex-Secretary of State Peter Hain or MEP Eluned Morgan to those seats so that they can take control of the party.

Hmm...Hands up who thinks this is a cunning plan of Baldrick proportions?

Firstly there's no guarantee that Neath nor Clwyd South would be retained in a by-election. In both seats Labour's majority is less than 2,000 with Plaid Cymru knocking on Neath's door and the Tories on Clwyd South's. While you could argue that having Peter Hain as a candidate would boost their majority (he has 12,000 majority for the parliamentary seat) he would struggle being in the limelight of a by-election so soon after his resignation from the Cabinet. As the Mule's source rightly points out:

In the case of Neath the national press and bloggers would have a field day with Peter Hain.

You bet we would!

Secondly it seems that these so -called "senior sources" assume that if Peter Hain or Eluned Morgan entered the Assembly Labour's AM's would warmly accept them as new leaders. How naive an assumption is that? Do they not see that inserting a "London man/woman" because of an apparent "fundamental weakness" in the current AM's would piss off those AM's enough that they chose their own leader anyway? Do these people not remember Alun Michael's fate? (I'm sure they do, wouldn't be surprised if the ex-First Minister himself was one of the people thinking these thoughts)

Let's be honest though, this is a far-fetched plan probably thought up by one or two deluded fools over in London. It will never happen and the Mule knows that. Why do they even bother printing this stuff?

Aftermath Snippets

Just a few additional snippets from the aftermath of the elections.

Labour will regain power in Bridgend as they have done a deal with two independents. The previous "Everyone but Labour" coalition is therefore out and this has to be chalked up as a Labour success. I'm sure however that Labour is still gutted it didn't get the additional seat it needed for an outright majority, that would have given them much-needed good press.

Plaid are apparently confident of running Gwynedd, Carmarthenshire and Caerphilly. They are easily the largest party in Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire, and obtaining power in the latter would be a big coup for them. They are level with Labour in Caerphilly and although I personally don't know who 8 of the 9 power-wielding independents are, Plaid seem confident that at least 5 will support them. In case you are wondering, the 1 independent I do know a bit about, and you will too, is none other than Ron Davies, the father of devolution. His wife was also elected as a Plaid councillor. What price Ron Davies working with Plaid against Labour?

Just in case Gordon Brown isn't depressed enough to have been trounced by the Tories in England he will this morning learn that a new poll in Scotland puts SNP support at it's highest ever point of 45%.

Finally, Plaid members are pointing out that they have a majority of Council seats within the Cardiff West constituency. I'm sure that will go down well with the sitting Assembly member for Cardiff West (A little-known AM called First Minister Rhodri Morgan!)

London Rules OK

Rhodri Morgan, on today's Politics Show, revealed that the message he had gotten, loud and clear, from London was that unless the LCO on Child Protection expressly ruled out a smacking ban, London would torpedo the whole thing, giving Wales no additional control over that area.

This is like the bully in the playground not only demanding a penalty for a non-existent foul, but also insisting that there should not be a keeper when he takes it. Unless the keeper agrees to give him an open goal, he'll take his ball home.

This is the second stage of a hardening of London's attitude towards the brand spanking new LCO's. Before last week there had been some tension between AM's and MP's, most notably the MP's complaints that both ends of the M4 should be reviewing potential LCO's at the same time instead of the Assembly passing judgement before London. The Child smacking/abuse threat this weekend comes hot on the heels of a Welsh Office "warning" last week that the Assembly should not "overpromise" the number of laws it would deliver.

The new message from London is quite clear then:

1. We'll give you enough so that we are be able to say there's no need for a referendum, but don't think of asking for much more.
2. If London don't like, Cardiff can bugger off.

A Man and his Dog

Apparently someone found this blog yesterday by googling "Rhodri Morgan Dog". If I wasn't such an avid reader of Popbitch I would be VERY scared!

Ok, I Failed

An interesting rumour doing the rounds concerning Rhodri Morgan: While happy enough to give his undying support to Mr Permatan in Welsh for the BBC, he apparently steadfastly refused to do the same in English. Is this a sign of the First Minister's new attitude towards the Welsh language following his tour of Welsh Wales? Or has the First Minister just realised along with everyone else that no-one watches Newyddion so he can say what he likes, while having to watch his step when talking to the English language media?

(Yes, i failed to refrain from talking about Hain for the day!)

Tender Truth About My Sheep

Today is what I can only describe as a crap news day. When the BBC have to resort to drink-drive figures going down as their top story, while icWales manage to link the one hour detention of the son of Hypocrite Kinnock by Russian police to the Diagnosis Murder-style killing of Alexander Litvinenko! EVen The Onion's top story today, detailing Jessica Simpson's plan to bring down the Dallas Cowboys, stinks of a page filler.

Even Fox News, always ready with a new scandal with a lack of accuracy and shovel of bias that would put the Daily Mail to shame, lead with the astonishing fact that OJ Simpson is still not in jail! And since I wanted to give Hain the rest for today I'm reduced to trawling Google News for an interesting read. One article which I've given a wide berth is the New Statesman intriguingly titled Tender truth about my sheep!

So, trying to avoid mentioning Mr Permatan for a day at least, I took the opportunity to look at the headlines a few days back reporting on Rhodri Morgan's tour of Welsh speaking Wales. The First Minister was at least honest in admitting that this was a desperate attempt at vote gathering, but what appalled me was the fact that this was even news. "First Minister of Wales leaves Cardiff" shouldn't be on page 11, let alone front page news, but sadly it is. There's many people in the South West and the North who, rightly or wrongly, don't feel the Assembly works for them, having the First Minister make such a big deal of a three day trip to the wild west is hardly going to reassure them.

A lesson for bloggers today comes from the blog of ex parliamentary candidate and ex-Assembly candidate (i.e. habitual loser) for Arfon Mr Martin Eaglestone. His entry for Rhodri's visit to the Royal Town is headed Rhodri Listening, and yet his very next entry is a video where Rhodri Morgan, after his visit was interrupted by a Cymdeithas protest, confirms that he is not, and will not, consider a new Welsh Language Act. Should that first entry be re-titled "Rhodri Listening Only To those who Like Him"?

No discussion of Rhodri Morgan and the Welsh language can end without quoting these wise words from a young(er) Mr Morgan when he was an MP in 1993

"The Government calls this a Welsh Language Bill, but it would be better described as a Welsh Language Quango Bill. What one could call a Quango for the lingo ...... We shall be abstaining tonight because we hope to have the opportunity before long to do the job properly. That will be done when we revisit the question of a Welsh language measure when we are in Government"

Oh how things (and principles) have changed!