Lessons From 1997

I've just re-watched ITV's online highlights of the 1997 referendum result night and a few things struck me. (Warning: Very long and probably boring post. Maybe you should stop reading here!)

Firstly it is important to remember that before the ballot boxes were opened in 1997 everyone assumed that the Yes campaign had won easily. That's what the polls said, that's what the media said and that's what both the Yes and No campaign thought. You won't need my reminder that in truth the result was very close and that until the last two results came in (Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire) the Yes campaign had virtually conceded defeat. This is a lesson that a Yes campaign in a new referendum has to take heed of. While the few polls that we have show support for a Parliament, there is a hell of a lot of work to be done by supporters of devolution if Wales is to say Yes again. Even with every major political party on board the result is far from certain. Back in 1997 only the Tories and a few Labour members supported the No campaign, and this was at a time when the Tories were in tatters remember. One of the leaders of the campaign was a Labour Councillor (Carys something, my memory fails me), not in the least bit well known, not in the least bit charismatic and yet the No campaign came within less than 7,000 votes.

The second question that has to be asked is: Who on earth will run the No campaign this time round? The Electoral Commission gets to decide which No group is to be the "official" one they will be seriously hindered this time round by the fact that there will be no major party to start the campaign. Highlights of the 1997 count gave us Michael Ancram and Nick Bourne (how times have changed!) telling us how bad devolution would be - who will be the criticiser in chief this time round? It seems that the No campaign will have to be lead by Labour Welsh MP's who desperately tried to stop the One Wales Coalition and their Tory counterparts.

Surprisingly perhaps, such a situation may harm the No campaign more than in 1997, when the only MP I remember opposing the plans was Llew Smith (Yes, even Don Touhig was in favour). Back in 1997 there was no AM/MP divide because we didn't have any AM's. How will Welsh voters react to having their MP's on one side and AM's on the other? I can't answer that question but the only guide we currently have is the vote at Labour's Conference when the One Wales Coalition was supported by about 3.5/1 of Labour members, even though the majority of MP's opposed it. While there's no doubt that such a majority would not be repeated in the Tory voters it does show that, at least in Labour, people are more willing to listen to their AM's than MP's (obviously I am generalising here, there will be Labour MP's in support as well).

Another issue that the 1997 result highlighted was that Powys, where both Lib Dem seats were held at the time, voted heavily against the Assembly. While the Lib Dem party supported devolution in 1997 and will do so again in a future referendum, will they be able to carry their voters along this time? Honestly I'm not so sure. While Labour and Plaid have always had a "Welsh" wing in their parties, and the Tories have been working hard to develop one, I can't quite put my finger on the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Lib Dem areas, at least in Powys, rejecting further devolution against the wishes of their party.

Obviously, just as in 1997, Plaid would expect to have the unwavering support of their voters for devolution. One interesting sidenote from the 1997 campaign was that Plaid did not immediately voice their support when the referendum was announced. their spin at the time was that they didn't think it was enough and might campaign against it. From what people have said since it seems that this was a conscious ploy by Dafydd Wigley to distance Plaid from the proposals so that they wouldn't "taint" it in the eyes of Labour voters who, in 1979, had seen devolution as Plaid's desire not their own party's. The effect of this can be seen when you review the 1997 count night, there is a thousand and one references, by both sides, to "the government's proposals" and "Labour's plans".

Whatever the result across Wales in a new referendum one place where I would expect a big change is Cardiff. The capital voted overwhelmingly against devolution in 1997 but I cannot see the same happening again. In the last 12 years Cardiff has really grown into its role as the Capital of Wales and I'd be surprised if it voted against again.

One final note: When we talk of the Assembly these days, more specifically about the Labour group, we always plant Huw Lewis and Leighton Andrews together as the "anti-devolution" side who think more like Labour's MP's than AM's. When Huw lewis opposed the Labour-Plaid coalition and then lost his place in Government a lot of people commented on how Leighton had kept quiet even though he surely opposed the coalition. Back in 1997 Leighton Andrews was one of the main organisers of the Yes campaign and was interviewed fro the Yes HQ throughout the night. While his hatred of the Nationalists is well-known, have people been a bit hasty in placing him in the anti-devolution camp?

Secretaries, Lords, Pigs and Corridors

Having ignored the blog for a couple of days (hey, even a Hen Ferchetan has a life you know!) let's do a quick roundup of what I've missed.

Paul Murphy

The new Welsh Secretary - lots of people are a little uncomfortable with Murphy's (re)appointment. He is known to be a devo-sceptic and was very much against the One Wales government. A lot of people down Cardiff way have told us of their worries that Murphy will try and stick an oar into extra powers for the Assembly, both by blocking LCO's and by meddling with preparations for a referendum. I disagree.

While Murphy may well be less of a supporter of devolution than Mr Permatan was, he is a man who will do his job with the least amount of confrontation possible. While Hain jumped at the chance to try and rule the Assembly, I don't see Murphy sticking his oar in too often. People forget that he was the Welsh Secretary when the Assembly came to life in 1999, there was no indication then that he was trying his best to hamper things.

The anti-devolution Labour MP's will be a little weaker with Murphy at the helm. Hain pretty much always followed the Labour MP's will, but he tried to colour things differently. He denied that the GoW2006 was pandering to them when it blatantly was. He denied that the ban on sitting in seats and on list was a sop to them when it blatantly was. We also seem to have all forgotten that Peter Hain was very much not a fan of the One Wales government. Remember his firm assurance before the election that Labour would never go into government with Plaid?

While I won't say I'm delighted with the appointment of Murphy, I can't say I'm devastated either. He'll do his job and he won't try to be the Governor General of Wales.


Plaid's Lords

So Wigley got the top spot on the wannabe Plaid Lords list. I'd like it on record that I beat CNN, FOX and all other news agencies in calling that result! Joining him on the list is Eurfyl ap Gwilym - again I have no surprise - and ex-AM Janet Davies. I don't know enough about the women of Plaid to say whether Davies was the expected result or the right result, but I think they got the men spot on.

It's up to number 10 to decide whether these three become Lords of course, but I suspect they will pretty soon. What's important, both for Plaid and for Wales, is that everyone sent to London as Lords take up their positions pretty much full time. Wales needs people actively speaking for us in the Lords, we don't want anyone wasting a seat there by rarely showing up.

Pig Builders

Now I'm not one to jump on the anti PC brigade, in fact I despise nothing more than the words "PC Gone Mad", but one story this weekend tickled me quite a bit. The "government banned three little pigs for offense to Muslim" story barely had me batting an eyelid. What did make me smile was the awards panel's other criticism of the reworked version of the story (called "Three Little Cowboy Builders). According to the awards panel comparing Builders to pigs was offensive to the workmen. I bet the pigs wouldn't be too happy with the comparison either!

Welsh Facts

icWales gives us a list of the weird and wonderful facts of Wales. My personal favorites is the longest corridor in Europe in Llandough Hospital, Cardiff and that New Zealand is one of the few countries in the World where "everyone knows of Wales.".

Call my cynical but has someone really asked EVERY person in New Zealand? And who was the poor sod who got the job of measuring every corridor in Europe!

The Wing of Sanity

Glyn Davies, the ex-Assembly member and soon to be MP, wrote from the Caribbean yesterday with support for Wigley's candidacy to become a M'Lord. He describes Wigley as being

"from the 'sane' wing of Plaid Cymru"

While that could be read as a snide attack on the rest of Plaid, it probably just means "not a socialist". While it would be nice for Wigley to return the compliment and say that Glyn is from the sane wing of his party, it would probably be more accurate to say that Glyn IS the sane wing of the Tories!

Arise Lord Wigley

So Wigley's announced he'll stand for a place on Plaid's Lords nomination list. Wow, what a suprise! Who could have predicted that one! The National Council votes on January 26th, and who knows which way that vote will go!

Having been watching the results of the early primaries of the US elections and being both amazed and confused at the speed with which CNN and FOX call the election for the winning party, I'll trump them.

With no precincts yet reporting, and no person yet voting, I'm calling this election for Dafydd Wigley! Anyone willing to challenge that bet?