Kirsty's new Shadow Shadow Cabinet
Showing posts with label Liberal Democrats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Liberal Democrats. Show all posts
Tuesday, 9 December 2008
First Female Party Leader
So Kirsty "Rainbow-Wrecker" Williams eases to victory in the all-female Lib Dem leadership campaign by some 60% to 40%. I won't comment much for now because I'm still off blogging until the Christmas holidays (although it certainly does make the Labour Leadership contest a damn sight more interesting as Kirsty will be clearly be pressing the One Wales Government skeptics (i.e. Huw Lewis) to dump Plaid and restart the Lib-Lab if he wins). I'll let Confused for Cardiff have the last word (for now) on this one:
Kirsty's new Shadow Shadow Cabinet
Kirsty's new Shadow Shadow Cabinet
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
Coat-Tail Hanger On
Blog post by Lib Dem Leadership contender Kirsty Williams:
As the world turns to a new generation of leaders with Barack in America and Tavish Scott and Nick Clegg in Scotland and the UK there should be no doubt about the opportunity we Welsh Liberal Democrats find ahead of us.Ouch. Just...ouch! What price Barack Obama makes a speech this week about how great it is that the world is turning to people like him, Tavish and Nick! I'll give you 4,000-1 odds!
Thursday, 30 October 2008
Time to Type
Right then, while the home concerns are still there, I need to push them to the back of my mind for a while so I'm back. Let's catch up...
Gordon Brown and David Cameron have decided that the most important thing for our leader and leader-in-waiting to address this week is not the economic crisis that has left thousands of the Welsh workforce unemployed (along with the the rest of the UK), it's not the fact that they're going to have to make huge decisions about Iraq once Obama (probably) wins on Tuesday, it's not even the fact that their respective darlings Mandelson and Osbourne have been cavorting around on yachts causing trouble. Oh no, the big issue that our leaders have made sure they address is the fact that two BBC radio hosts told someone that one of them had slept with his granddaughter. A revelation so shocking to the show's listeners that 2 of them felt the need to complain. Two. While remembering that there shouldn't really be a bandwagon over the matter in the first place (who are the Sun to express disgust at such thing, have you read their celebrity gossip column?) we certainly don't want Brown and Cameron' jumping on to it! And shock horror, David Davies MP has also called on Brand and Ross to resign. The man is like a machine, any hint of newspaper coverage and there he is, calling on someone to resign!
Talking about the "True" Wales founder, Welsh Ramblings points us towards a Daily Mail story reporting on the Monmouth MP telling the National BLACK Police Association that they were as racist as the apartheid regime in South Africa because only black policemen could join the National BLACK Police Association. While David Davies must be hurt by the negative press, I a have a feeling that what will hurt him most is the fact that it's his best friends in the Daily Mail who are lampooning him and that they had the nerve to say this:
Update: As Ordovicius points out, Alan Williams MP for Swansea West and Father of the House is also named in the piece as "a dud"
David Davies isn't the only Welsh MP who has had a bit of a kicking by the Mail this week. Ceredigion Lib Dem MP Mark Williams won't have enjoyed the paper's column on worthless MP's. I'm sure that this quote won't be appearing on the Lib Dems pamphlet come the next election:
Down the bay I missed the whole Lord Dafydd vs London fight. The story's been well covered by now so I won;t go too far into it apart from noting that this must be one of the first occasions in the history of the Assembly where Dafydd Ellis-Thomas caused a stir and was actually supported by all the AM's! There's no doubt that the Lord was right on this one, but whether he won or not is harder to tell. While some pro-devolutionists believe that the LCO mess will be a big boost to the Yes campaign (whenever it is created!) I don't believe it will be. Most people have no idea how the LCO's work and don't read such stories in the Mule (if they read it at all). This is a story read by us anoraks and no-one else I feel.
Welsh Ramblings also quotes this exchange from the floor of the Commons. For all those who refer to the Assembly as a talking shop, have a read of this:
Right then. What next?
Gordon Brown and David Cameron have decided that the most important thing for our leader and leader-in-waiting to address this week is not the economic crisis that has left thousands of the Welsh workforce unemployed (along with the the rest of the UK), it's not the fact that they're going to have to make huge decisions about Iraq once Obama (probably) wins on Tuesday, it's not even the fact that their respective darlings Mandelson and Osbourne have been cavorting around on yachts causing trouble. Oh no, the big issue that our leaders have made sure they address is the fact that two BBC radio hosts told someone that one of them had slept with his granddaughter. A revelation so shocking to the show's listeners that 2 of them felt the need to complain. Two. While remembering that there shouldn't really be a bandwagon over the matter in the first place (who are the Sun to express disgust at such thing, have you read their celebrity gossip column?) we certainly don't want Brown and Cameron' jumping on to it! And shock horror, David Davies MP has also called on Brand and Ross to resign. The man is like a machine, any hint of newspaper coverage and there he is, calling on someone to resign!
Talking about the "True" Wales founder, Welsh Ramblings points us towards a Daily Mail story reporting on the Monmouth MP telling the National BLACK Police Association that they were as racist as the apartheid regime in South Africa because only black policemen could join the National BLACK Police Association. While David Davies must be hurt by the negative press, I a have a feeling that what will hurt him most is the fact that it's his best friends in the Daily Mail who are lampooning him and that they had the nerve to say this:
"Many members had expected the more famous former shadow home secretary to be speaking and few recognised his namesake, who is also a member of the Home Affairs Select Committee, when he stood up to speak."Ouch!
Update: As Ordovicius points out, Alan Williams MP for Swansea West and Father of the House is also named in the piece as "a dud"
David Davies isn't the only Welsh MP who has had a bit of a kicking by the Mail this week. Ceredigion Lib Dem MP Mark Williams won't have enjoyed the paper's column on worthless MP's. I'm sure that this quote won't be appearing on the Lib Dems pamphlet come the next election:
"On the LibDem benches, meanwhile, we are assured that one Mark Williams sits for the electors of Ceredigion (Cardiganshire in old money). Does he? Could have fooled me. What makes this all the worse is that the alleged Mr Williams - who may well be Inspector Clouseau, for all we know - won his seat at the last general election by ousting Plaid Cymru's Simon Thomas, an outstanding parliamentarian"Again - ouch!
Down the bay I missed the whole Lord Dafydd vs London fight. The story's been well covered by now so I won;t go too far into it apart from noting that this must be one of the first occasions in the history of the Assembly where Dafydd Ellis-Thomas caused a stir and was actually supported by all the AM's! There's no doubt that the Lord was right on this one, but whether he won or not is harder to tell. While some pro-devolutionists believe that the LCO mess will be a big boost to the Yes campaign (whenever it is created!) I don't believe it will be. Most people have no idea how the LCO's work and don't read such stories in the Mule (if they read it at all). This is a story read by us anoraks and no-one else I feel.
Welsh Ramblings also quotes this exchange from the floor of the Commons. For all those who refer to the Assembly as a talking shop, have a read of this:
Richard Younger-Ross MP: ... Blue Peter was important to me as a child ... I remember those wonderful moments with the elephant, the gentleman sniffing, John Noakes, the dogs — what were their names?Nice to know Lembit is as focused on the important things as Brown, Cameron and David Davies!
Lembit Opik MP: The Blue Peter dogs since the inception of the programme were called Petra, Patch, Shep, Goldie, Bonnie, Mabel and Lucy. There was also a dog called Meg, but it was not an official Blue Peter dog. It belonged to Matt Baker and frequently appeared on the show, so including that one, there were eight dogs.
Mr. Deputy Speaker: Order. That is a detail which could possibly be left for Committee.
Right then. What next?
Sunday, 12 October 2008
All Change
Right then, a whole basket of topics to talk about today so let's start with the hello's and goodbyes.
Jane Davidson will be off in 2011. The ex-Education Minister has told Labour's Pontypridd branch that she's giving up the job. Not a sniff of a scandal around Davidson so there's no reason to treat it as anything other than early retirement.
Mike German has also, finally, stepped down. The race to be his replacement begins and we should have the first female party leader in the Assembly by December. In his goodbye speech to the party faithful he stated that the Union was "dead" and that the only options for the future was a federalised UK or an independent Wales. He warned that Wales was in danger of getting left behind in the devolution race, echoing Peter Black's recent call for a Yes Campaign.
Jenny Randerson immediately put her hand up as a candidate which, after Kirsty declared herself to be a candidate last month, means that the Lib Dems have a contest. Peter Black has immediately written Randerson off as "more of the same" but she has collected heavyweight support in the shape of the Lib Dems only "safe" MP, Jenny Willot and the leader of Cardiff Council Rodney Berman. Unfortunately for her though she's also attracted the support of serial loser-backer Lembit Opik. Unsurprisingly Peter Black, a staunch Kirsty backer, immediately declared his support for Opik's opponent for the UK party presidency!
Even though Ordovicius clearly thinks otherwise I'll give the Libs the benefit of the doubt and state that this could be an interesting contest. It will be the first leadership contest between two females for one thing and, as the UK Lib Dems have showed us over and over, when it comes to Lib Dem leadership issues they can be pretty nasty with each other.
Jane Davidson will be off in 2011. The ex-Education Minister has told Labour's Pontypridd branch that she's giving up the job. Not a sniff of a scandal around Davidson so there's no reason to treat it as anything other than early retirement.
Mike German has also, finally, stepped down. The race to be his replacement begins and we should have the first female party leader in the Assembly by December. In his goodbye speech to the party faithful he stated that the Union was "dead" and that the only options for the future was a federalised UK or an independent Wales. He warned that Wales was in danger of getting left behind in the devolution race, echoing Peter Black's recent call for a Yes Campaign.
Jenny Randerson immediately put her hand up as a candidate which, after Kirsty declared herself to be a candidate last month, means that the Lib Dems have a contest. Peter Black has immediately written Randerson off as "more of the same" but she has collected heavyweight support in the shape of the Lib Dems only "safe" MP, Jenny Willot and the leader of Cardiff Council Rodney Berman. Unfortunately for her though she's also attracted the support of serial loser-backer Lembit Opik. Unsurprisingly Peter Black, a staunch Kirsty backer, immediately declared his support for Opik's opponent for the UK party presidency!
Even though Ordovicius clearly thinks otherwise I'll give the Libs the benefit of the doubt and state that this could be an interesting contest. It will be the first leadership contest between two females for one thing and, as the UK Lib Dems have showed us over and over, when it comes to Lib Dem leadership issues they can be pretty nasty with each other.
Thursday, 25 September 2008
Time for Fisitcuffs
Between Jenny Randerson sending out three announcements in a day and this video appearing on YouTube I guess it's fair to say that at least someone in the Welsh Lib Dem is up for a fight. Well, there's a first for everything!
Wednesday, 10 September 2008
Top Lib
So Kirsty Williams is the first to throw her hat into the ring for the soon-to-be vacant post of Welsh Lib Dem leader. She is supported in her bid by Mick Bates AM and Peter Black AM. The fact that these two men are supporting Kirsty means that we are now seemingly certain to see the first female leader of a Welsh mainstream party. (Did I just call the Lib Dems mainstream?)
This means that the ball now lies in Jenny Randerson and Eleanor Burnham's courts. Current Lib Dem rules state that any candidate for the job must be nominated by another AM. Unless Mike German backs one of those two as his successor (unlikely, he'll probably keep out of this one) one of them has to back down and support the other to challenge Kirsty. This may change however as the leadership election rules could be changed before nominations are due.
Eleanor Burnham would garner strong support from the North and the Welsh speakers while Kirsty's support took a big blow in the will-they-won't-they mess the Lib Dems found themselves in during coalition talks but I can't look past Kirsty for the job. We all know she's been craving this chance for at least three years and I think it's fair to say that's she's the mos likely to give the Lib Dems the boost so they have needed for years. She's young, attractive and has a much higher profile than the other two women. In a party that suffers from the lack of name/face recognition she is the most likely to be remembered by the voters.
The Welsh Lib Dems do desperately need a boost - their coalition mess has been followed by 15 months of anonymity as Labour, Plaid and the Tories take the headlines. I don't know if Kirsty will be able to give them that much needed boost, but she certainly has a much better chance of doing so than the other potential candidates.
One question though, why does the BBC refer to Kirsty as "Ms Williams"? Isn't she a Mrs?
This means that the ball now lies in Jenny Randerson and Eleanor Burnham's courts. Current Lib Dem rules state that any candidate for the job must be nominated by another AM. Unless Mike German backs one of those two as his successor (unlikely, he'll probably keep out of this one) one of them has to back down and support the other to challenge Kirsty. This may change however as the leadership election rules could be changed before nominations are due.
Eleanor Burnham would garner strong support from the North and the Welsh speakers while Kirsty's support took a big blow in the will-they-won't-they mess the Lib Dems found themselves in during coalition talks but I can't look past Kirsty for the job. We all know she's been craving this chance for at least three years and I think it's fair to say that's she's the mos likely to give the Lib Dems the boost so they have needed for years. She's young, attractive and has a much higher profile than the other two women. In a party that suffers from the lack of name/face recognition she is the most likely to be remembered by the voters.
The Welsh Lib Dems do desperately need a boost - their coalition mess has been followed by 15 months of anonymity as Labour, Plaid and the Tories take the headlines. I don't know if Kirsty will be able to give them that much needed boost, but she certainly has a much better chance of doing so than the other potential candidates.
One question though, why does the BBC refer to Kirsty as "Ms Williams"? Isn't she a Mrs?
Friday, 15 August 2008
Lessons From 1997
I've just re-watched ITV's online highlights of the 1997 referendum result night and a few things struck me. (Warning: Very long and probably boring post. Maybe you should stop reading here!)
Firstly it is important to remember that before the ballot boxes were opened in 1997 everyone assumed that the Yes campaign had won easily. That's what the polls said, that's what the media said and that's what both the Yes and No campaign thought. You won't need my reminder that in truth the result was very close and that until the last two results came in (Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire) the Yes campaign had virtually conceded defeat. This is a lesson that a Yes campaign in a new referendum has to take heed of. While the few polls that we have show support for a Parliament, there is a hell of a lot of work to be done by supporters of devolution if Wales is to say Yes again. Even with every major political party on board the result is far from certain. Back in 1997 only the Tories and a few Labour members supported the No campaign, and this was at a time when the Tories were in tatters remember. One of the leaders of the campaign was a Labour Councillor (Carys something, my memory fails me), not in the least bit well known, not in the least bit charismatic and yet the No campaign came within less than 7,000 votes.
The second question that has to be asked is: Who on earth will run the No campaign this time round? The Electoral Commission gets to decide which No group is to be the "official" one they will be seriously hindered this time round by the fact that there will be no major party to start the campaign. Highlights of the 1997 count gave us Michael Ancram and Nick Bourne (how times have changed!) telling us how bad devolution would be - who will be the criticiser in chief this time round? It seems that the No campaign will have to be lead by Labour Welsh MP's who desperately tried to stop the One Wales Coalition and their Tory counterparts.
Surprisingly perhaps, such a situation may harm the No campaign more than in 1997, when the only MP I remember opposing the plans was Llew Smith (Yes, even Don Touhig was in favour). Back in 1997 there was no AM/MP divide because we didn't have any AM's. How will Welsh voters react to having their MP's on one side and AM's on the other? I can't answer that question but the only guide we currently have is the vote at Labour's Conference when the One Wales Coalition was supported by about 3.5/1 of Labour members, even though the majority of MP's opposed it. While there's no doubt that such a majority would not be repeated in the Tory voters it does show that, at least in Labour, people are more willing to listen to their AM's than MP's (obviously I am generalising here, there will be Labour MP's in support as well).
Another issue that the 1997 result highlighted was that Powys, where both Lib Dem seats were held at the time, voted heavily against the Assembly. While the Lib Dem party supported devolution in 1997 and will do so again in a future referendum, will they be able to carry their voters along this time? Honestly I'm not so sure. While Labour and Plaid have always had a "Welsh" wing in their parties, and the Tories have been working hard to develop one, I can't quite put my finger on the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Lib Dem areas, at least in Powys, rejecting further devolution against the wishes of their party.
Obviously, just as in 1997, Plaid would expect to have the unwavering support of their voters for devolution. One interesting sidenote from the 1997 campaign was that Plaid did not immediately voice their support when the referendum was announced. their spin at the time was that they didn't think it was enough and might campaign against it. From what people have said since it seems that this was a conscious ploy by Dafydd Wigley to distance Plaid from the proposals so that they wouldn't "taint" it in the eyes of Labour voters who, in 1979, had seen devolution as Plaid's desire not their own party's. The effect of this can be seen when you review the 1997 count night, there is a thousand and one references, by both sides, to "the government's proposals" and "Labour's plans".
Whatever the result across Wales in a new referendum one place where I would expect a big change is Cardiff. The capital voted overwhelmingly against devolution in 1997 but I cannot see the same happening again. In the last 12 years Cardiff has really grown into its role as the Capital of Wales and I'd be surprised if it voted against again.
One final note: When we talk of the Assembly these days, more specifically about the Labour group, we always plant Huw Lewis and Leighton Andrews together as the "anti-devolution" side who think more like Labour's MP's than AM's. When Huw lewis opposed the Labour-Plaid coalition and then lost his place in Government a lot of people commented on how Leighton had kept quiet even though he surely opposed the coalition. Back in 1997 Leighton Andrews was one of the main organisers of the Yes campaign and was interviewed fro the Yes HQ throughout the night. While his hatred of the Nationalists is well-known, have people been a bit hasty in placing him in the anti-devolution camp?
Firstly it is important to remember that before the ballot boxes were opened in 1997 everyone assumed that the Yes campaign had won easily. That's what the polls said, that's what the media said and that's what both the Yes and No campaign thought. You won't need my reminder that in truth the result was very close and that until the last two results came in (Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire) the Yes campaign had virtually conceded defeat. This is a lesson that a Yes campaign in a new referendum has to take heed of. While the few polls that we have show support for a Parliament, there is a hell of a lot of work to be done by supporters of devolution if Wales is to say Yes again. Even with every major political party on board the result is far from certain. Back in 1997 only the Tories and a few Labour members supported the No campaign, and this was at a time when the Tories were in tatters remember. One of the leaders of the campaign was a Labour Councillor (Carys something, my memory fails me), not in the least bit well known, not in the least bit charismatic and yet the No campaign came within less than 7,000 votes.
The second question that has to be asked is: Who on earth will run the No campaign this time round? The Electoral Commission gets to decide which No group is to be the "official" one they will be seriously hindered this time round by the fact that there will be no major party to start the campaign. Highlights of the 1997 count gave us Michael Ancram and Nick Bourne (how times have changed!) telling us how bad devolution would be - who will be the criticiser in chief this time round? It seems that the No campaign will have to be lead by Labour Welsh MP's who desperately tried to stop the One Wales Coalition and their Tory counterparts.
Surprisingly perhaps, such a situation may harm the No campaign more than in 1997, when the only MP I remember opposing the plans was Llew Smith (Yes, even Don Touhig was in favour). Back in 1997 there was no AM/MP divide because we didn't have any AM's. How will Welsh voters react to having their MP's on one side and AM's on the other? I can't answer that question but the only guide we currently have is the vote at Labour's Conference when the One Wales Coalition was supported by about 3.5/1 of Labour members, even though the majority of MP's opposed it. While there's no doubt that such a majority would not be repeated in the Tory voters it does show that, at least in Labour, people are more willing to listen to their AM's than MP's (obviously I am generalising here, there will be Labour MP's in support as well).
Another issue that the 1997 result highlighted was that Powys, where both Lib Dem seats were held at the time, voted heavily against the Assembly. While the Lib Dem party supported devolution in 1997 and will do so again in a future referendum, will they be able to carry their voters along this time? Honestly I'm not so sure. While Labour and Plaid have always had a "Welsh" wing in their parties, and the Tories have been working hard to develop one, I can't quite put my finger on the Lib Dems. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Lib Dem areas, at least in Powys, rejecting further devolution against the wishes of their party.
Obviously, just as in 1997, Plaid would expect to have the unwavering support of their voters for devolution. One interesting sidenote from the 1997 campaign was that Plaid did not immediately voice their support when the referendum was announced. their spin at the time was that they didn't think it was enough and might campaign against it. From what people have said since it seems that this was a conscious ploy by Dafydd Wigley to distance Plaid from the proposals so that they wouldn't "taint" it in the eyes of Labour voters who, in 1979, had seen devolution as Plaid's desire not their own party's. The effect of this can be seen when you review the 1997 count night, there is a thousand and one references, by both sides, to "the government's proposals" and "Labour's plans".
Whatever the result across Wales in a new referendum one place where I would expect a big change is Cardiff. The capital voted overwhelmingly against devolution in 1997 but I cannot see the same happening again. In the last 12 years Cardiff has really grown into its role as the Capital of Wales and I'd be surprised if it voted against again.
One final note: When we talk of the Assembly these days, more specifically about the Labour group, we always plant Huw Lewis and Leighton Andrews together as the "anti-devolution" side who think more like Labour's MP's than AM's. When Huw lewis opposed the Labour-Plaid coalition and then lost his place in Government a lot of people commented on how Leighton had kept quiet even though he surely opposed the coalition. Back in 1997 Leighton Andrews was one of the main organisers of the Yes campaign and was interviewed fro the Yes HQ throughout the night. While his hatred of the Nationalists is well-known, have people been a bit hasty in placing him in the anti-devolution camp?
Friday, 11 July 2008
Knifedge Councils
While David Davis' stroll to re-election takes the headlines in the London papers today, Wales had two Council by-elections yesterday, both in Councils with a very tight balance between those in control and the opposition.
In the Rheidiol ward of Aberystwyth Ceredigion Plaid Cymru gained a seat from the Lib Dems. This was a strong Lib Dem seat which was won just two months ago with 46% of the vote. The Lib Dems were hit with the resignation of their councillor after he was cautioned by the Police, and Plaid took advantage.
The result leaves Ceredigion Council on a knifedge. Plaid have 20 seats, Lib Dem and the Independents 21 seats with 1 Labour Councillor.
There will be no change in the running of the Council, but the Lib Dem/Independents must be hoping to God that none of their Councillors has to step down during the next 4 years!
The other election was in West Risca in Caerphilly. The seat was vacant after the long serving Labour councillor died within days of the election. Labour held the seat comfortably yesterday, and this brings them back to 31 councillors, the same as Plaid. Plaid remain in control of the Council due to support from 2 of the 9 independents.
One of those two independents is Ron Davies. Rumours of a switch to Plaid have been circulating long before he joined their government in Caerphilly. His appearance at Plaid's One Wales Government anniversary party this week will do nothing to quell those rumours!
In the Rheidiol ward of Aberystwyth Ceredigion Plaid Cymru gained a seat from the Lib Dems. This was a strong Lib Dem seat which was won just two months ago with 46% of the vote. The Lib Dems were hit with the resignation of their councillor after he was cautioned by the Police, and Plaid took advantage.
The result leaves Ceredigion Council on a knifedge. Plaid have 20 seats, Lib Dem and the Independents 21 seats with 1 Labour Councillor.
There will be no change in the running of the Council, but the Lib Dem/Independents must be hoping to God that none of their Councillors has to step down during the next 4 years!
The other election was in West Risca in Caerphilly. The seat was vacant after the long serving Labour councillor died within days of the election. Labour held the seat comfortably yesterday, and this brings them back to 31 councillors, the same as Plaid. Plaid remain in control of the Council due to support from 2 of the 9 independents.
One of those two independents is Ron Davies. Rumours of a switch to Plaid have been circulating long before he joined their government in Caerphilly. His appearance at Plaid's One Wales Government anniversary party this week will do nothing to quell those rumours!
Friday, 27 June 2008
By-Elections Everywhere
By-elections seems to be the order of the month, first we have a new Tory in Boris' old seat - no surprise there. The biggest story from Henley is that Labour lost their deposit, failing to get even 5% of the vote. To compound the misery on brown's 1 year anniversary Labour actually got 5th in Henley - behind the Greens and the BNP and only just ahead of UKIP.
At least Labour can be safe in the knowledge that they won't lose their deposit in the next by-election - that of David Davis - but only because they haven't put up a candidate, neither have the Lib Dems. Plenty of others have stepped into the fold though - the ex-shadow Home Secretary will have TWENTY-FIVE challengers! Half of them are independents, the others include a candidate for the National Front Britain for the British, the Miss Great Britain Party (does exactly what it says on the tin) the Church of the Militant Elvis Party (I kid you not!) and a candidate for The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (who were only 800 or so votes behind Labour in Henley!) who is actually called Mad Cow-Girl!
One by-election to watch in Wales, the Rheidiol seat in the middle of Aberystwyth will be contested on 10th July. A lib Dem retained the seat in the recent elections but resigned within a month after being arrested and cautioned. Even though the Lib Dems had more than twice the Plaid votes last time round, the Councillor had a strong personal vote and therefore Plaid are hopeful here. Victory for them will not only give them bragging rights over a big part of Ceredigion's biggest town before the big general election fight to come, it will also put them 1 seat away from a majority on the Council. Both the Libs and Plaid have shown their desire to win this seat with both parties putting forward ex Mayors of Aberystwyth. With a third ex-Mayor standing as an independent this will be a pretty interesting battle.
At least Labour can be safe in the knowledge that they won't lose their deposit in the next by-election - that of David Davis - but only because they haven't put up a candidate, neither have the Lib Dems. Plenty of others have stepped into the fold though - the ex-shadow Home Secretary will have TWENTY-FIVE challengers! Half of them are independents, the others include a candidate for the National Front Britain for the British, the Miss Great Britain Party (does exactly what it says on the tin) the Church of the Militant Elvis Party (I kid you not!) and a candidate for The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (who were only 800 or so votes behind Labour in Henley!) who is actually called Mad Cow-Girl!
One by-election to watch in Wales, the Rheidiol seat in the middle of Aberystwyth will be contested on 10th July. A lib Dem retained the seat in the recent elections but resigned within a month after being arrested and cautioned. Even though the Lib Dems had more than twice the Plaid votes last time round, the Councillor had a strong personal vote and therefore Plaid are hopeful here. Victory for them will not only give them bragging rights over a big part of Ceredigion's biggest town before the big general election fight to come, it will also put them 1 seat away from a majority on the Council. Both the Libs and Plaid have shown their desire to win this seat with both parties putting forward ex Mayors of Aberystwyth. With a third ex-Mayor standing as an independent this will be a pretty interesting battle.
Friday, 9 May 2008
Late Lib
Mike German has announec that he will step down as Lib Dem leader in October this year. You'd have imagined that such an announcement would have been music to the years of some of the other Liberal AM's (i.e. Peter Black and Kirsty Williams). The leadership election that never was last year can now begin for real.
Peter Black however seems to be fuming. He wants his shot at the top now, not in 6 months time. Peter believes that Mike German had promised to step down straight after the local elections and indicates that the Assembly Group were at best unhappy with the October date.
And, to be fair to Peter, this is true. In October 2007 Mike German said that he would step down
Ah well Peter, it's only a few more months. Don't you remember the Guinness ads? All that about good things come to those who wait. Just 6 months from now you'll finally be able to enjoy the moment that Kirsty becomes the new Welsh Lib Dem leader.
Peter Black however seems to be fuming. He wants his shot at the top now, not in 6 months time. Peter believes that Mike German had promised to step down straight after the local elections and indicates that the Assembly Group were at best unhappy with the October date.
And, to be fair to Peter, this is true. In October 2007 Mike German said that he would step down
as soon as seems sensible and practicable (after the local elections)
Ah well Peter, it's only a few more months. Don't you remember the Guinness ads? All that about good things come to those who wait. Just 6 months from now you'll finally be able to enjoy the moment that Kirsty becomes the new Welsh Lib Dem leader.
Saturday, 3 May 2008
Who, What and Where
So election day is over for another month and, for once, we actually had quite an interesting local election that has left countless ex-Councillors £15,000 a year worse off. Here's the blow-by-blow of each council.
ANGLESEY
Lot of councillors booted out on the island, but mostly independents losing to independents. Labour will spin their +5 as a great result, but most of those were independent councillors who had been booted out of the party by Labour in 2004 for making deals with Plaid who have now been greeted back into the fold. The most notable result was infamous planning committee member John Arthur Jones being thrashed by Plaid. Both the Tories and Lib Dems also made gains as the Council remains NOC.
BLAENAU GWENT
Labour, very predictably, lose control of Blaenau Gwent to NOC. 8 of their Councillors get the boot, mostly to independents. Labour has now lost all of it's Blaenau Gwent power; the Council, the London seat and the Assembly seat.The independents could stick the knife in and prevent Labour from even being part of the administration here.
BRIDGEND
Along with Neath, the good news area for Labour. They gained 5 seats with the Lib Dems, Tories and independents slipping. Unfortunately for Labour this left them 1 seat short of seizing the Council from NOC. The "Everyone-But-Labour" coalition will struggle without an outright majority.
UPDATE:BBC reports that Labour have struck a deal with two independents, meaning that they will form a cabinet.
CAERPHILLY
Probably the Council that's hardest to guess where it goes from here after Labour loses to NOC. Labour losses to Plaid sees them both with 32 seats. The balance of power is held by the 9 independents - whichever party can reach an agreement with at least 5 of them will rule Caerphilly.
CARDIFF
An absolute disaster for Labour in the capital with the loss of 14 seats. The Tories, Lib Dems and Plaid all benefit in a council that remains NOC. The school re-organisation plans is the key here. Plaid voted against the proposals last time, angering many of their supporters in doing so. Demand for Welsh-language education in the capital far outstrips demand and the failure to agree a re-organisation has left the system in a spin. If the Lib Dems make some token changes to their plan, leaving a few more English-language schools open, then expect Plaid to support it and a Yellow-Green coalition to rule Cardiff.
CARMARTHEN
Probably Plaid's greatest success this time round. A gain of 14 seats from Labour gives them a total of 30. Not enough to seize the Council from NOC, but still significant. Since 1999 Carmarthen is the one place where Plaid has truly managed to turn Green. Adam Price has made the previously safe Dr Alan Labour seat a Plaid stronghold and come next year Plaid will have an outside shot of the Llanelli scalp. Helen Mary has the Assembly seat and yesterday Plaid seized some big Labour seats in the Saucepan Town.
CEREDIGION
Plaid won't be sure whether they should celebrate or curse their luck in Ceredigion. A gain of 3 seats makes them easily the largest party but they were 3 seats short of seizing the Council from NOC. Their candidate for the Lib Dem held parliamentary seat also lost his Council seat making a big dent in their hopes of recapturing Ceredigion next year. In a typical Lib Dem maneuver their MP worked hard in the ward of the Plaid candidate and will be very pleased with the result. Plaid need to convince three of the 12 independents to support them if they are to take control of Ceredigion - but expect the Council to continue to be ruled by an "Everyone-but-Plaid" Alliance.
CONWY
Great result for the Tories, gaining 8 seats in an area where they will hope to win a London seat next year. Plaid saw a small gain while Labour, Lib Dems and the Independents lost ground. The Council remains NOC with the Tories easily the biggest party and Plaid pushing Labour to third place.
DENBIGHSHIRE
Very similar to Conwy, the Tories make big gains in a Council that remains NOC, this time at the expense of independents. Small gains for Plaid and the Lib Dems while Labour sit still.
FLINTSHIRE
Another catastrophe for Labour, 13 councillors lose their seat as the Council slips to NOC. Independents and Tories make the big gains with Plaid sitting still and the Lib Dems gaining 1.
GWYNEDD
The fly in Plaid's ointment in this election, their stronghold slips to NOC. If any of the Council elections has to be looked at separately, this is it. While Plaid lost 8, Labour also lost 4 and the Lib Dems lost 1. The Tories remain nonexistent. The big winners were independents and Llais Gwynedd -the protest party set up to oppose the Council's school reorganisation plan. Plaid lose their Council leader as well as Dafydd Iwan, the Party's President. Don't be surprised however if Plaid actually get a majority here before 2012 -if they humbly back off the school plan then they might well entice 3 of the independents/Llais Gwynedd into their fold before the next election. The national party has to be fuming at their Gwynedd councillors for creating this situation as it puts a bad spin on what was otherwise a good day for the nationalists.
MERTHYR
Another Labour loss to NOC. Independents and Lib Dems benefit. Independents now have the number to control this council without either of the big named parties.
MONMOUTHSIRE
One of the "sure fire bets" of the election as the Tories hold with an increased majority. Lib Dems also make gains while Labour and Plaid slip a little.
NEATH
Easily Labour's best result of the day.The collapse of the Ratepayer's Association saw Labour gain 1 seat and retain control of the Council. Plaid and the Lib Dems also made small gains.
NEWPORT
Labour's last city is lost to NOC.Even though there are 6 seats still to be determined (elections postponed due to the death of two candidates) Labour cannot regain their majority. The best they can hope for is to get exactly half the seats. Their fate was sealed when two 3-seat wards went to a recount - Labour eventually lost half of them. The loss of 8 seats leaves them only 2 ahead of the Tories. We will probably have to wait until the last 6 seats are determined before we know where the balance of power lies. If Labour gets them all, they could deal with the 1 independent to get a working majority. If any of the other 3 parties get just one of the seats, a Rainbow coalition could rule in Wales' second City.
PEMBROKSHIRE
A Labour slip at the expense of the Tories leave all three big parties with 5 seats. The Lib Dems follow closely with 3 but, as usual in this NOC Council, the power on Pembroke remains with the independents.
POWYS
The Tories take nine seats from the independents, but Powys is, and always will be, a NOC Council ruled by the independents.
RHONDDA
Labour hold on comfortably but take a hit of 12 seats. Chris Bryant's "Plaid are dead in Rhondda" rings a little hollow as the nationalists gain 7 seats. Plaid actually took 10 from Labour, but lost a seat each to the Lib Dems, independents and, surprisingly, the Tories. Rhondda now has a Tory councillor - now those are words I never though I'd be saying!
SWANSEA
Not much change here. Only thing of note is Plaid losing 3 out of their 4 councillors-not a good result for them. Council remains NOC, Labour remains largest party.
TORFAEN
A bad night for Labour would have seen them lose Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Flint. Losing Torfaen to NOC was not in the script, not even in the script of their disaster movie. 16 Labour Councillors were booted out, mostly to Independents. Both the Tories and Plaid made gains, pushing the Lib Dems from 2nd to 4th place.
VALE OF GLAMORGAN
Again very predictably the Tories seize control of the Vale from NOC, the only Council to be "won" by anyone in this election. They took 5 councillors from labour and Plaid - enough for a 3 seat majority.
WREXHAM
Labour decimated in North Wales' only city. Even with the threat of Forward Wales now dead, Labour continued to slip. The Lib Dems emerge as the largest party while Plaid will be thrilled to get their first four seats on the Council that remains NOC.
So how will the parties feel?
LABOUR will undoubtedly be dismayed. They lost well over a hundred councillors in Wales. They will blame the results on the London party and on economic forces they could not control. The fact that Labour lost big in England, and that Ken lost to Boris, will support this evaluation. What makes this result so bad for Labour is that it was a defeat after a defeat. 2004 was a disaster for Labour, to fall back even further in 2008 leaves them weak across the country. They will be fearing next year's general election, although any defeats there will be seen in the UK wide context of what is likely to be a very bad election. If they do lose in 2009 they may well be able to regroup by 2012 and regain some of these losses. It is incredible that they now have exactly the same number of Councils in Wales as the Tories do!
The TORIES will be very happy. While they didn't romp home in style they made gains nearly everywhere, getting about 50 extra councillors. They consolidated their control of Momouth and took the Vale of Glamorgan. They had hopes of doing much better in the Capital but won't let that dampen their joy. A very solid result, not exceptional but very solid none the less. The party's gains in England and London will probably overshadow their Welsh gains however.
PLAID will, eventually, see this as a good election. They made gains across the board and have four Councils within their grasps come the next election (Need 3 seats in Ceredigion and Gwynedd, 5 in Caerphilly and 7 in Carmarthen). They won seats in Wrexham and could have a big say as a junior partner in the Capital. In the short term however Plaid will be devastated to lose their only Council, Gwynedd. While they will eventually accept that Gwynedd succumbed to local issues (namely the education reform plan) and isn't a reflection of their national position they will suffer in the short term from the bad press. They will also be less confident of regaining the London Ceredigion seat after their candidate lost his place on the Council. An interesting note to cheer up Plaid. Even though in 1999 they ruled 3 councils (Gwynedd, Rhondda, Caerphilly) and now rule none - they have two more Councillor today than they had in 1999, which was supposedly a "one-off freak" result.
The LIB DEMS will probably feel the opposite of Plaid. In the short term they will see this as a very satisfactory result, they consolidated their status as largest party in most of their Cities and overall won about 15 councillors. They showed that the protest vote they got in 2004 was not just about Iraq and showed that the Welsh party has, to some extent, regrouped after their 2007 calamities. In the long term however this result might not be seen as quite so successful. Labour is even more unpopular now than it was in 2004, both the Tories and Plaid made much bigger gains than the Lib Dems. They now find themselves as the fifth party of Welsh local politics, slipping behind the Tories (Independents are first). Their Ceredigion MP will be very happy to have orchestrated the fall of his Plaid opponent-to-be.
And there we go, the 2008 Welsh local elections are done and dusted. Another 12 months now until we go into General Election mode, then another 12 months until it's the European Parliament time and then another 12 months until it's Assembly elections again. There will also (maybe) be a referendum to fit in too!
ANGLESEY
Lot of councillors booted out on the island, but mostly independents losing to independents. Labour will spin their +5 as a great result, but most of those were independent councillors who had been booted out of the party by Labour in 2004 for making deals with Plaid who have now been greeted back into the fold. The most notable result was infamous planning committee member John Arthur Jones being thrashed by Plaid. Both the Tories and Lib Dems also made gains as the Council remains NOC.
BLAENAU GWENT
Labour, very predictably, lose control of Blaenau Gwent to NOC. 8 of their Councillors get the boot, mostly to independents. Labour has now lost all of it's Blaenau Gwent power; the Council, the London seat and the Assembly seat.The independents could stick the knife in and prevent Labour from even being part of the administration here.
BRIDGEND
Along with Neath, the good news area for Labour. They gained 5 seats with the Lib Dems, Tories and independents slipping. Unfortunately for Labour this left them 1 seat short of seizing the Council from NOC. The "Everyone-But-Labour" coalition will struggle without an outright majority.
UPDATE:BBC reports that Labour have struck a deal with two independents, meaning that they will form a cabinet.
CAERPHILLY
Probably the Council that's hardest to guess where it goes from here after Labour loses to NOC. Labour losses to Plaid sees them both with 32 seats. The balance of power is held by the 9 independents - whichever party can reach an agreement with at least 5 of them will rule Caerphilly.
CARDIFF
An absolute disaster for Labour in the capital with the loss of 14 seats. The Tories, Lib Dems and Plaid all benefit in a council that remains NOC. The school re-organisation plans is the key here. Plaid voted against the proposals last time, angering many of their supporters in doing so. Demand for Welsh-language education in the capital far outstrips demand and the failure to agree a re-organisation has left the system in a spin. If the Lib Dems make some token changes to their plan, leaving a few more English-language schools open, then expect Plaid to support it and a Yellow-Green coalition to rule Cardiff.
CARMARTHEN
Probably Plaid's greatest success this time round. A gain of 14 seats from Labour gives them a total of 30. Not enough to seize the Council from NOC, but still significant. Since 1999 Carmarthen is the one place where Plaid has truly managed to turn Green. Adam Price has made the previously safe Dr Alan Labour seat a Plaid stronghold and come next year Plaid will have an outside shot of the Llanelli scalp. Helen Mary has the Assembly seat and yesterday Plaid seized some big Labour seats in the Saucepan Town.
CEREDIGION
Plaid won't be sure whether they should celebrate or curse their luck in Ceredigion. A gain of 3 seats makes them easily the largest party but they were 3 seats short of seizing the Council from NOC. Their candidate for the Lib Dem held parliamentary seat also lost his Council seat making a big dent in their hopes of recapturing Ceredigion next year. In a typical Lib Dem maneuver their MP worked hard in the ward of the Plaid candidate and will be very pleased with the result. Plaid need to convince three of the 12 independents to support them if they are to take control of Ceredigion - but expect the Council to continue to be ruled by an "Everyone-but-Plaid" Alliance.
CONWY
Great result for the Tories, gaining 8 seats in an area where they will hope to win a London seat next year. Plaid saw a small gain while Labour, Lib Dems and the Independents lost ground. The Council remains NOC with the Tories easily the biggest party and Plaid pushing Labour to third place.
DENBIGHSHIRE
Very similar to Conwy, the Tories make big gains in a Council that remains NOC, this time at the expense of independents. Small gains for Plaid and the Lib Dems while Labour sit still.
FLINTSHIRE
Another catastrophe for Labour, 13 councillors lose their seat as the Council slips to NOC. Independents and Tories make the big gains with Plaid sitting still and the Lib Dems gaining 1.
GWYNEDD
The fly in Plaid's ointment in this election, their stronghold slips to NOC. If any of the Council elections has to be looked at separately, this is it. While Plaid lost 8, Labour also lost 4 and the Lib Dems lost 1. The Tories remain nonexistent. The big winners were independents and Llais Gwynedd -the protest party set up to oppose the Council's school reorganisation plan. Plaid lose their Council leader as well as Dafydd Iwan, the Party's President. Don't be surprised however if Plaid actually get a majority here before 2012 -if they humbly back off the school plan then they might well entice 3 of the independents/Llais Gwynedd into their fold before the next election. The national party has to be fuming at their Gwynedd councillors for creating this situation as it puts a bad spin on what was otherwise a good day for the nationalists.
MERTHYR
Another Labour loss to NOC. Independents and Lib Dems benefit. Independents now have the number to control this council without either of the big named parties.
MONMOUTHSIRE
One of the "sure fire bets" of the election as the Tories hold with an increased majority. Lib Dems also make gains while Labour and Plaid slip a little.
NEATH
Easily Labour's best result of the day.The collapse of the Ratepayer's Association saw Labour gain 1 seat and retain control of the Council. Plaid and the Lib Dems also made small gains.
NEWPORT
Labour's last city is lost to NOC.Even though there are 6 seats still to be determined (elections postponed due to the death of two candidates) Labour cannot regain their majority. The best they can hope for is to get exactly half the seats. Their fate was sealed when two 3-seat wards went to a recount - Labour eventually lost half of them. The loss of 8 seats leaves them only 2 ahead of the Tories. We will probably have to wait until the last 6 seats are determined before we know where the balance of power lies. If Labour gets them all, they could deal with the 1 independent to get a working majority. If any of the other 3 parties get just one of the seats, a Rainbow coalition could rule in Wales' second City.
PEMBROKSHIRE
A Labour slip at the expense of the Tories leave all three big parties with 5 seats. The Lib Dems follow closely with 3 but, as usual in this NOC Council, the power on Pembroke remains with the independents.
POWYS
The Tories take nine seats from the independents, but Powys is, and always will be, a NOC Council ruled by the independents.
RHONDDA
Labour hold on comfortably but take a hit of 12 seats. Chris Bryant's "Plaid are dead in Rhondda" rings a little hollow as the nationalists gain 7 seats. Plaid actually took 10 from Labour, but lost a seat each to the Lib Dems, independents and, surprisingly, the Tories. Rhondda now has a Tory councillor - now those are words I never though I'd be saying!
SWANSEA
Not much change here. Only thing of note is Plaid losing 3 out of their 4 councillors-not a good result for them. Council remains NOC, Labour remains largest party.
TORFAEN
A bad night for Labour would have seen them lose Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Flint. Losing Torfaen to NOC was not in the script, not even in the script of their disaster movie. 16 Labour Councillors were booted out, mostly to Independents. Both the Tories and Plaid made gains, pushing the Lib Dems from 2nd to 4th place.
VALE OF GLAMORGAN
Again very predictably the Tories seize control of the Vale from NOC, the only Council to be "won" by anyone in this election. They took 5 councillors from labour and Plaid - enough for a 3 seat majority.
WREXHAM
Labour decimated in North Wales' only city. Even with the threat of Forward Wales now dead, Labour continued to slip. The Lib Dems emerge as the largest party while Plaid will be thrilled to get their first four seats on the Council that remains NOC.
So how will the parties feel?
LABOUR will undoubtedly be dismayed. They lost well over a hundred councillors in Wales. They will blame the results on the London party and on economic forces they could not control. The fact that Labour lost big in England, and that Ken lost to Boris, will support this evaluation. What makes this result so bad for Labour is that it was a defeat after a defeat. 2004 was a disaster for Labour, to fall back even further in 2008 leaves them weak across the country. They will be fearing next year's general election, although any defeats there will be seen in the UK wide context of what is likely to be a very bad election. If they do lose in 2009 they may well be able to regroup by 2012 and regain some of these losses. It is incredible that they now have exactly the same number of Councils in Wales as the Tories do!
The TORIES will be very happy. While they didn't romp home in style they made gains nearly everywhere, getting about 50 extra councillors. They consolidated their control of Momouth and took the Vale of Glamorgan. They had hopes of doing much better in the Capital but won't let that dampen their joy. A very solid result, not exceptional but very solid none the less. The party's gains in England and London will probably overshadow their Welsh gains however.
PLAID will, eventually, see this as a good election. They made gains across the board and have four Councils within their grasps come the next election (Need 3 seats in Ceredigion and Gwynedd, 5 in Caerphilly and 7 in Carmarthen). They won seats in Wrexham and could have a big say as a junior partner in the Capital. In the short term however Plaid will be devastated to lose their only Council, Gwynedd. While they will eventually accept that Gwynedd succumbed to local issues (namely the education reform plan) and isn't a reflection of their national position they will suffer in the short term from the bad press. They will also be less confident of regaining the London Ceredigion seat after their candidate lost his place on the Council. An interesting note to cheer up Plaid. Even though in 1999 they ruled 3 councils (Gwynedd, Rhondda, Caerphilly) and now rule none - they have two more Councillor today than they had in 1999, which was supposedly a "one-off freak" result.
The LIB DEMS will probably feel the opposite of Plaid. In the short term they will see this as a very satisfactory result, they consolidated their status as largest party in most of their Cities and overall won about 15 councillors. They showed that the protest vote they got in 2004 was not just about Iraq and showed that the Welsh party has, to some extent, regrouped after their 2007 calamities. In the long term however this result might not be seen as quite so successful. Labour is even more unpopular now than it was in 2004, both the Tories and Plaid made much bigger gains than the Lib Dems. They now find themselves as the fifth party of Welsh local politics, slipping behind the Tories (Independents are first). Their Ceredigion MP will be very happy to have orchestrated the fall of his Plaid opponent-to-be.
And there we go, the 2008 Welsh local elections are done and dusted. Another 12 months now until we go into General Election mode, then another 12 months until it's the European Parliament time and then another 12 months until it's Assembly elections again. There will also (maybe) be a referendum to fit in too!
Tuesday, 29 April 2008
Double Standards
Following on from the "To Speak or Not to Speak" post, see if you can see the teeny weeny bit of hypocrisy in Lib Dem AM Peter Black's opinions here...
Plaid MEP speaks out against Plaid supported St Athan academy because she personally opposes
Peter Black verdict = "lack of discipline and inconsistency"
Lib Dem MP's resign from front bench and vote for Lib Dem opposed-European referendum because they want one
Peter Black verdict = "a proper and principled way to proceed"
Don't you just hate petty party politics?
Plaid MEP speaks out against Plaid supported St Athan academy because she personally opposes
Peter Black verdict = "lack of discipline and inconsistency"
Lib Dem MP's resign from front bench and vote for Lib Dem opposed-European referendum because they want one
Peter Black verdict = "a proper and principled way to proceed"
Don't you just hate petty party politics?
Saturday, 19 January 2008
Obama Wins Vital Votes
The Western Mail have exclusively revealed that if Cardiff Bay was accepted as the 51st state of America, Obama would get a few more delegates for the Democratic Convention!Apparently the vast majority of AM's surveyed would vote for Obama. Labour's Rosemary Butler, Alun Davies, Irene James and Val Lloyd would go for Hillary, while Tory Andrew Davies is the only Republican fan in the Senedd.
Liberal Democrats Peter Black, Eleanor Burnham and Jenny Randerson seems to have gotten the Democratic nomination confused with the Liberal Democrats leadership mess, none of the three were able to pick a candidate to lead!
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