In all the hype and excitement of the American elections, even over here, we all seemed to have forgotten that the Glenrothes election is today. The count has started and the word that's spreading is that the SNP will turn the Labour 10,000 majority to a 1,000 majority of their own.
Labour are already trying to turn such a result into a "win", saying that the defeat would have been much worse a few months ago. Sorry but I can't buy that. While they may well have lost by a large amount a few months ago, losing a 10,000 majority is nothing close to a win, it's embarrassing.
Who knows though, the count is still young, Labour may well keep the seat.
Whichever way the result goes though, it won't have as much effect as we thought when the seat became vacant. This was supposed to be Brown's saviour or executioner. But with all the focus on Barck Obama's victory, Glenrothes has slipped from the front pages and, win or lose, won't have any substantial effect on Brown and Labour's ratngs.
Update: Rumours have now switched to say that Labour may hang on. Brown may well rue his decision to "bury" the poll by having it in the same week as the US election. If they are going to win it Labour could have done with having the by-election dominate the news instead of being ignored for weeks.
Showing posts with label SNP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SNP. Show all posts
Thursday, 6 November 2008
Saturday, 13 September 2008
Scotish Labour's Saviour?
Scottish Labour have chosen their new leader, the Chosen One is Iain Gray. Never heard of him? Me neither! The big question of course is how will he deal with Alex Salmond and will he be able to convince Scottish voters to vote Labour in the next general Election and, more importantly, to vote No if the SNP get their referendum. In both cases he'll have to outmaneuver the SNP and out-wit the media-savy Salmond. Can he do it? Here's Gray's most high profile TV spot to date, I'll let you make your own minds up.
Friday, 22 August 2008
Alex and Maggie Sitting In a Tree
Scottish Labour is in uproar as Alex Salmond apparently praises Lady Thatcher in Total Politics magazine. With the Scottish First Minister going on radio to insist that he never did such a thing the Labour politicians are crowing:
Labour MSP John Park: The screech of the first minister going into reverse gear can't disguise the own goal he's scored with his praise of Thatcherism. He clearly realised that his off-the-cuff remarks have backfired.
Fellow Labour MSP Malcolm Chisholm said: Alex Salmond should hang his head in shame.So what did Alex Salmond say to put Thatcher on such a pedestal and turn his back on Scottish voters who were hurt by Thatcher?
One of the reasons Scotland didn't take to Lady Thatcher was because of that. We didn't mind the economic side so much. But we didn't like the social side at all.Yes, massive praise that.
Wednesday, 13 August 2008
Earthquake Mark 2?
With Labour MP John MacDougall dying after a long illness there will be another by-election in Scotland, this time in Glenrothes (Fife). Labour have a 10,664 majority over the SNP. While usually this would a huge insurmountable majority it is 3,000 less than the one Labour failed to defend in Glasgow East.
Here we go again...
Update: Ordo notes a new YouGov poll giving the SNP 19 points over Labour in Scotland as a whole (44-25). Just three months ago YouGov had the parties 1 point apart at 33-32 .
Here we go again...
Update: Ordo notes a new YouGov poll giving the SNP 19 points over Labour in Scotland as a whole (44-25). Just three months ago YouGov had the parties 1 point apart at 33-32 .
Monday, 28 July 2008
Federal Friends?
A couple of the newspapers today are winking and nudging about informal talks between David Cameron's Tories and the SNP about what happens after Labour are removed from government sometime in the next two years.
The Tories' worry is that Glasgow East has proven that Alex Salmond knows exactly what he's doing in delaying the independence referendum until after the next General Election. They have looked at the by-election results and have come to two conclusions:
1. They will win the next general election with a comfortable majority, and
2. Scottish voters now see the SNP as the alternative to Labour, leaving the Tories with only a couple of seats up north
The Tories know damn well what the result of that will be. Alex Salmond will have a field day (or, to be more specific, a field year!) and will not miss a single opportunity to decry the Tory government's lack of mandate in Scotland. While this may or may not result in a yes vote for independent it would undoubtedly make David Cameron's first year in office very very hard.
The Tories' worry is that Glasgow East has proven that Alex Salmond knows exactly what he's doing in delaying the independence referendum until after the next General Election. They have looked at the by-election results and have come to two conclusions:
1. They will win the next general election with a comfortable majority, and
2. Scottish voters now see the SNP as the alternative to Labour, leaving the Tories with only a couple of seats up north
The Tories know damn well what the result of that will be. Alex Salmond will have a field day (or, to be more specific, a field year!) and will not miss a single opportunity to decry the Tory government's lack of mandate in Scotland. While this may or may not result in a yes vote for independent it would undoubtedly make David Cameron's first year in office very very hard.
The Herald states that:
It would benefit the Conservative Party on both sides of the border if David Cameron pre-empted this by having informal, exploratory talks with First Minister Salmond about granting far more powers, which must include taxation to the Scottish Government, while making it clear that unless a referendum decided otherwise, this would occur within the Union.
But the London Daily Mail goes further, saying that such talks are already ongoing:
That is why, I can reveal, allies of Cameron have entered into informal talks with the SNP over recent months. Their objective is to save the union by working out a new kind of constitutional settlement for Scotland...An incoming Tory administration would need to meet Alex Salmond's demands that the Scottish Parliament should have massive new powers over taxation and public spending. In domestic terms, a Scottish administration would be entirely self-governing and have complete command over economic policy. And yet the union could be maintained through the retention of shared armed forces, and foreign policy, and the monarchy.
Is this the start of a Federal UK instead of full blow independence? And where does it leave Wales?
Friday, 25 July 2008
Scottish Review
So what does today's "off the scale" result in Glasgow East actually mean?
For Labour, there's not much of a debate. It's a disaster, totally unmitigated. There can be no positive spin on it. Is it the death knell of Gordon Brown? Could be, but it will be a very long knell - he's going nowhere until 2010. Although battered and bruised at the moment, Labour aren't stupid. They know that there is no chance in hell that the voters would accept a third Prime Minister in one term. having one "un-elected" Premier hurt them, having another one would be suicide. There's also the fact of course that no-one can think of a credible alternative to Brown.
Which leaves Labour in a bit of a limbo. Brown will plod along until the autumn, the try and regain the initiative in the Autumn. Barring some miracle he'll fight an election as late as possible (2010) and lose. Prime Minister Cameron it will be.
The harder question is what does the result mean for the Union? Most of the newspapers and media have gone out of their way to stress that this was not a vote on independence and in that they are correct. This was a fight on the economy and on governments' records.
What I find harder to agree with however is that this was just another by-election shock, only newsworthy because of the size of the old majority. This election was not a run of the mill by-election. This cannot be explained away as a mid-term protest against the government. For the first time ever in UK politics this was an election not between government and opposition, but between government and government.
By voting for the SNP the people of Glasgow weren't telling Labour they'd rather have SNP running the show in London, they were telling the London government that at the moment they preferred the Scottish government. This ws not merely a protest vote against the UK government, it was also a confidence vote in Holyrood's government. And that's why this election, although not fought on constitutional matters, does have some real significance to that debate.
In a way it is a clear indication to the SNP that their decision to hold off an independence referendum until they'd served a (nearly) full term is vindicated. Any debate/argument/campaign between the SNP and Labour are no longer seen as a Scottish spat, it's seen as Scotland vs London. With every such conflicts, 2010 seems set to be more and more unsettling for the Union.
Self-deluder of the day is Tory Underground who believes that by winning by only 365 votes "the results were bad for the SNP"!
For Labour, there's not much of a debate. It's a disaster, totally unmitigated. There can be no positive spin on it. Is it the death knell of Gordon Brown? Could be, but it will be a very long knell - he's going nowhere until 2010. Although battered and bruised at the moment, Labour aren't stupid. They know that there is no chance in hell that the voters would accept a third Prime Minister in one term. having one "un-elected" Premier hurt them, having another one would be suicide. There's also the fact of course that no-one can think of a credible alternative to Brown.
Which leaves Labour in a bit of a limbo. Brown will plod along until the autumn, the try and regain the initiative in the Autumn. Barring some miracle he'll fight an election as late as possible (2010) and lose. Prime Minister Cameron it will be.
The harder question is what does the result mean for the Union? Most of the newspapers and media have gone out of their way to stress that this was not a vote on independence and in that they are correct. This was a fight on the economy and on governments' records.
What I find harder to agree with however is that this was just another by-election shock, only newsworthy because of the size of the old majority. This election was not a run of the mill by-election. This cannot be explained away as a mid-term protest against the government. For the first time ever in UK politics this was an election not between government and opposition, but between government and government.
By voting for the SNP the people of Glasgow weren't telling Labour they'd rather have SNP running the show in London, they were telling the London government that at the moment they preferred the Scottish government. This ws not merely a protest vote against the UK government, it was also a confidence vote in Holyrood's government. And that's why this election, although not fought on constitutional matters, does have some real significance to that debate.
In a way it is a clear indication to the SNP that their decision to hold off an independence referendum until they'd served a (nearly) full term is vindicated. Any debate/argument/campaign between the SNP and Labour are no longer seen as a Scottish spat, it's seen as Scotland vs London. With every such conflicts, 2010 seems set to be more and more unsettling for the Union.
Self-deluder of the day is Tory Underground who believes that by winning by only 365 votes "the results were bad for the SNP"!
Wednesday, 2 July 2008
Bookies' Favorite
As I mentioned a few posts ago Gordon Brown is facing a by-election in Glasgow after the sitting Labur MP resigned due to ill health. Coming straight after Wendy Alexander stepped down it is a very inconvenient distraction. But after two sounding defeats in recent by-election (losing Crewe & Nantwich to th Tories and coming 5th in Henley) surely they can't lose Glasgow East. This constituency, created in 2005,is solid Labour. Just three years ago David Marshall won a 13.507 majority over the SNP, taking nearly 61% of the vote. If labour hold reasonably comfortably, as you'd expect with such a majority, then it would give Gordon a much needed boost.
Thing is, Labour are in a seriously big hole at the moment, and the way things have been going for Brown, and how Salmond is riding high these days, would you really bet against the SNP snatching Glasgow East? The bookies think not. Ladbrokes have the SNP as 8/13 favorites while Paddy Power puts them at an even shorter 4/7. Looking at odds like those the candidates for the top Labour job in Scotland must be asking themselves is it worth it!
Thing is, Labour are in a seriously big hole at the moment, and the way things have been going for Brown, and how Salmond is riding high these days, would you really bet against the SNP snatching Glasgow East? The bookies think not. Ladbrokes have the SNP as 8/13 favorites while Paddy Power puts them at an even shorter 4/7. Looking at odds like those the candidates for the top Labour job in Scotland must be asking themselves is it worth it!
Thursday, 5 June 2008
A British Day (or is that Days?)
London Immigration Minister Liam Byrne must have thought that he was giving a boost to Brown's ridiculous "Britsh Day" campaign by preparing to suggest to the Labour think-tank Progress that it should land on an existing bank holiday. In fact, he had a particular day already chosen:
"I myself have become convinced that the August Bank Holiday weekend - what some have called 'the great British weekend' - has the virtue of being in the summer, and already being a bank holiday,"
Byrne thinks that the idea of a British Day has "really caught on". (It will be interesting to see the result of a YouGov poll currently being carried out into opinions on the idea)
Unfortuantely for Byrne however, his plan hit a bump even before he made the planned speach. Without even bothering to hide their giggles, the SNP pointed out that the August Bank Holiday will be held on 25th August in Wales, England and NI......but on 5th August in Scotland. Hardly a celebration of our unity within the United Kingdom if Scotland "celebrates" it 20 days before the rest of us is it!
"I myself have become convinced that the August Bank Holiday weekend - what some have called 'the great British weekend' - has the virtue of being in the summer, and already being a bank holiday,"
Byrne thinks that the idea of a British Day has "really caught on". (It will be interesting to see the result of a YouGov poll currently being carried out into opinions on the idea)
Unfortuantely for Byrne however, his plan hit a bump even before he made the planned speach. Without even bothering to hide their giggles, the SNP pointed out that the August Bank Holiday will be held on 25th August in Wales, England and NI......but on 5th August in Scotland. Hardly a celebration of our unity within the United Kingdom if Scotland "celebrates" it 20 days before the rest of us is it!
Tuesday, 13 May 2008
Bring Them On
The Scottish Political Editor for the Herald, Douglas Fraser, has a new scoop which is set to rock the Wendy-Gordon relationship even further...
A bit of satire will always raise a smile!
Wendy Alexander is set to announce a new challenge to the SNP about the commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Scheduled for 2014, she is to tell Alex Salmond to "bring them on" – arguing that if the SNP is genuine in its enthusiasm for staging the Games in Glasgow, it should legislate for them to take place the year before then, in 2013.
Labour's thinking is that it needs to show "the hollowness of the SNP's commitment to the Commonwealth Games". According to one insider: "If New Delhi can stage the games in 2010, what on earth are we waiting for? If Alex Salmond were really behind Glasgow's games, he could even try to get in ahead of the Indian capital and have the Games next year."
The sudden shift of tactics is understood to have caused tensions with Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who fears that if Scottish Labour wants the Glasgow Commonwealth Games to be staged one year earlier than planned, he may come under pressure to bring the London Olympics forward to 2011 - potentially sending costs soaring. His spokesman says is is "not persuaded" of the case for "bringing them on", despite Ms Alexander telling associates she thinks he has agreed.
If the SNP First Minister refuses to bring forward the date of the Commonwealth Games, instead sticking to the existing timetable, sources close to Wendy Alexander say that she will be able to claim that she has called Alex Salmond's bluff, and she will label him "a cowardly custard".
A bit of satire will always raise a smile!
Monday, 12 May 2008
Something of the Night
Wendy Alexander appeared on the Scottish Politics Show yesterday, and gosh was it painful. She seems to have been left dazed and confused by the past week or so, and is trying desperately to portray herself, and Labour, as the "winners" of the happenings of the last week. Listening to her mumble and stutter it reminded me of Michael Howard's famous "Did you threaten to overrule" interview in that she simply couldn't answer the question put to her.
Clearly Wendy had prepared a stock answer to the expected question on the referendum (something to do with "exposing the SNP's hollowness" and "Gordon Brown has endorsed my right to choose tactics") and stuck by them, even when they didn't answer the questions asked!
You can see the interview here. Thankfully Ordovicius has provided a transcript of the interview, and it deserves to be quoted here...
Glenn Campbell: Factual question first of all: Who is the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland?
Wendy Alexander MSP: [sighs] Gordon Brown is the leader of the Labour Party and I am leader of the Labour Party in the Scottish Parliament, and I think that goes to the heart of this issue, because...
Glenn Campbell: He's the leader in Scotland as well as elsewhere in the country..
Wendy Alexander MSP: Yes.
Glenn Campbell: In those circumstances then, when he's told the Telegraph newspaper this morning that he was "not persuaded" of the case of a referendum, was he speaking for the Scottish Labour Party?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No and he wouldn't seek to do so. What he was saying is laying out his position on the referendum. Where Gordon and I are at one is we want to expose the hollowness of the SNP and I have the First Minister's -Prime Minister's support- in pursuing whatever tactics are right in the Scottish Parliament. I mean this goes to the heart of the devolution settlement...
Glenn Campbell: But this is fascinating, you're saying that the Prime Minister who is as you've acknowledged the leader of the Labour Party everywhere, that his position is not the same as the position of the Scottish Labour Party.
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, what the Prime Minister said to me this week was that he supported my right to pursue whatever tactics we need to pursue in the Scottish Parliament to expose the hollowness of the SNP's position, and what we've learned this week is that the SNP are unwilling to let Scotland speak...
Glenn Campbell: We'll come onto that in a moment. Is this your universal declaration of the independence for the Labour Party at Holyrood?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, far from it. What I've been about is so we can say that the SNP have been in power for a year, it's quite clear that their agenda is to fray the relationship with the rest of the UK, they want to parade around Scotland claiming there's support for independence, manifestly there's not...
Glenn Campbell: Are you going to toe the London-Labour Party line?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No what it's..it's not about towing a line it's about tactics in the Scottish Parliament to harry and expose the dishonesty of the SNP is one for Labour in the Scottish Parliament, and I have the support of the Labour Party in doing that.
Glenn Campbell: Even if that means gambling with the constitutional future of Scotland?
Wendy Alexander MSP: I don't think it's gambling with the constitutional future of Scotland to say we trust the people. I mean a year ago Labour in Scotland lost an election and I said we would listen. We've listened to people in Scotland and I think two things they want is that we look again at devolution, and through the Calman Commission which I proposed we're doing that, and the second thing is that Scotland does want to have its say and I think in a moment you'll have the Tories on...they have to explain why they think Scotland shouldn't have a say in the matter, and the SNP have to tell us why they don't believe Scotland should have a chance to speak before the next general election.
Glenn Campbell: Okay, well can you help us with a few things: If the Prime Minister is not persuaded of the case for an independence referendum why did you tell Newsnight Scotland on Tuesday that he had endorsed your call?
Wendy Alexander MSP: I said that he had endorsed my right to pursue whatever tactics were right in the Scottish Parliament to expose the SNP, including my right to call on them.
Glenn Campbell: What you were asked was, did the Prime Minister endorse your call for a referendum and you answered 'Yes'.
Wendy Alexander MSP: The Prime Minister has endorsed my right as the leader of Labour in the Scottish Parliament to do whatever we think it takes to expose the hollowness of the SNP.
Glenn Campbell: But that's not what you said.
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well let me make this clear. On Wednesday the SNP refused our challenge, they confirmed it again on Thursday...
Glenn Campbell: But..you said you had spoken to the Prime Minister earlier that evening, and when asked directly if he endorsed your call for a referendum, you said 'Yes'. That's not true.
Wendy Alexander MSP: He has endorsed the right of Labour in the Scottish Parliament to lead on how we expose the SNP in the Scottish Parliament.
Glenn Campbell: But he has not endorsed your call for an early referendum.Wendy Alexander MSP: He's endorsed the right of Labour in Scotland...Glenn Campbell: Has he endorsed your call for a referendum?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well I mean understandably I am not -and this is important- I am not calling on the Prime Minister in Westminster to pursue a referendum. I think people would think that was a very odd thing to happen in Westminster. This is about whether in Scotland...
Glenn Campbell: Isn't Westminster the only parliament that can call a referendum that would be binding?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well, the SNP have put forward a proposal to call for a referendum in Scotland, we've said that there's no blank cheque but we will look at that issue, and they've declined, declined the chance to let Scotland speak...
Glenn Campbell: But obviously Gordon Brown has declined the opportunity to back your call for an early referendum on independence. Isn't the truth in all of this that what you did was try to bounce him into support by broadcasting his support on Newsnight on Tuesday?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, I think what yo see is the press having a lot of fun this week. The big issue...I mean look at the press today, the Prime Minister is clear in his support for me, as people know we're great friends, we go back a long way, the issue is whether the tactics for pursuing the SNP in Scotland is the arena where Labour in Scotland lead in the Scottish Parliament, we have done so this week, goodness me, you spent years telling us that we should take the initiative. We take the initiative, put the SNP behind the eight ball, and the SNP's bluff was called. They are as yellow as the colour yellow that supports their party.
Glenn Campbell: Do you accept though that the SNP's referendum is now the only chance of a public vote on Scotland's constitutional future?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, well self-evidently it's not. I mean the Tories and the Liberals have to explain to people why they believe that Scots have no right to speak on this issue. What happened this week and what history will record is that Labour was saying 'We do think'. This issue's been around for thirty years, the SNP are lying when they say a majority of people in Scotland supports independence...
Glenn Campbell: But this position you've already clarified is not Labour's position. This is Wendy Alexander's position. It may be the position of the Labour group at Holyrood but it is not the Labour Party's position, it's not the Prime Minister's position, it's not the position of the UK cabinet, including your own brother. It's your position, you tried to bounce them, and it didn't work.
Wendy Alexander MSP: No. The decision as to whether the referendum has support in the Scottish Parliament is a matter for the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament. Part of devolution is to say we will harry the SNP to bring forward a bill to let Scotland choose, and the SNP are not letting us do so.
Glenn Campbell: Well they say that they'll bring forward their bill on January 2010, and they say that they'd like to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2010 after the last possible date for the UK general election. In those circumstances will you back their bill?
Wendy Alexander MSP: What we've said is that we do want Scotland to choose, we'll scrutinise their bill, I've been saying that all week, what is deeply dishonest...
Glenn Campbell: Will you back their bill though?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well there's no blank cheques here. We want to see the bill, we want to see the question, but I...
Glenn Campbell: But instinctively you're in favour of a referendum now?
Wendy Alexander MSP: I have called the SNP's bluff. They will not let Scotland speak.
Glenn Campbell: They're sticking to their manifesto commitment!
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, the reason for this is they want to fray the relationship with the rest of the UK for the whole of the foreseeable future...
Glenn Campbell: Now I understand something of the politics of independence, what I don't understand yet in this interview: whether or not you are going to lead Labour MSPs to support an independence referendum in 2010?
Wendy Alexander MSP: We have said that the people of Scotland should be allowed to speak and we will not vote down the opportunity for Scotland to speak, but we will want to harry them on things like what the question is, what the process is, we think it is right after thirty years that Scotland be given the chance to speak, and I just want to say...
Glenn Campbell: But this is really important, because you're now saying...I'd like you to clarify, are you saying here right now that you are going to back the SNP's independence referendum -with a couple of caveats- and theefore there shall be a referendum before the next Holyrood elections?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well we have said this week that we believe that the voice of Scotland should be heard and the SNP are running scared, and they have got to stop claiming as Nicola Sturgeon claimed this week that there is majority support for independence. The truth is that they are running scared and they are trying to wait for a time that is politically oportune to them and they have also made clear this week, most importantly, that they are willing to put David Cameron into number 10...
It hurts just to read it doesn't it!
Clearly Wendy had prepared a stock answer to the expected question on the referendum (something to do with "exposing the SNP's hollowness" and "Gordon Brown has endorsed my right to choose tactics") and stuck by them, even when they didn't answer the questions asked!
You can see the interview here. Thankfully Ordovicius has provided a transcript of the interview, and it deserves to be quoted here...
Glenn Campbell: Factual question first of all: Who is the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland?
Wendy Alexander MSP: [sighs] Gordon Brown is the leader of the Labour Party and I am leader of the Labour Party in the Scottish Parliament, and I think that goes to the heart of this issue, because...
Glenn Campbell: He's the leader in Scotland as well as elsewhere in the country..
Wendy Alexander MSP: Yes.
Glenn Campbell: In those circumstances then, when he's told the Telegraph newspaper this morning that he was "not persuaded" of the case of a referendum, was he speaking for the Scottish Labour Party?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No and he wouldn't seek to do so. What he was saying is laying out his position on the referendum. Where Gordon and I are at one is we want to expose the hollowness of the SNP and I have the First Minister's -Prime Minister's support- in pursuing whatever tactics are right in the Scottish Parliament. I mean this goes to the heart of the devolution settlement...
Glenn Campbell: But this is fascinating, you're saying that the Prime Minister who is as you've acknowledged the leader of the Labour Party everywhere, that his position is not the same as the position of the Scottish Labour Party.
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, what the Prime Minister said to me this week was that he supported my right to pursue whatever tactics we need to pursue in the Scottish Parliament to expose the hollowness of the SNP's position, and what we've learned this week is that the SNP are unwilling to let Scotland speak...
Glenn Campbell: We'll come onto that in a moment. Is this your universal declaration of the independence for the Labour Party at Holyrood?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, far from it. What I've been about is so we can say that the SNP have been in power for a year, it's quite clear that their agenda is to fray the relationship with the rest of the UK, they want to parade around Scotland claiming there's support for independence, manifestly there's not...
Glenn Campbell: Are you going to toe the London-Labour Party line?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No what it's..it's not about towing a line it's about tactics in the Scottish Parliament to harry and expose the dishonesty of the SNP is one for Labour in the Scottish Parliament, and I have the support of the Labour Party in doing that.
Glenn Campbell: Even if that means gambling with the constitutional future of Scotland?
Wendy Alexander MSP: I don't think it's gambling with the constitutional future of Scotland to say we trust the people. I mean a year ago Labour in Scotland lost an election and I said we would listen. We've listened to people in Scotland and I think two things they want is that we look again at devolution, and through the Calman Commission which I proposed we're doing that, and the second thing is that Scotland does want to have its say and I think in a moment you'll have the Tories on...they have to explain why they think Scotland shouldn't have a say in the matter, and the SNP have to tell us why they don't believe Scotland should have a chance to speak before the next general election.
Glenn Campbell: Okay, well can you help us with a few things: If the Prime Minister is not persuaded of the case for an independence referendum why did you tell Newsnight Scotland on Tuesday that he had endorsed your call?
Wendy Alexander MSP: I said that he had endorsed my right to pursue whatever tactics were right in the Scottish Parliament to expose the SNP, including my right to call on them.
Glenn Campbell: What you were asked was, did the Prime Minister endorse your call for a referendum and you answered 'Yes'.
Wendy Alexander MSP: The Prime Minister has endorsed my right as the leader of Labour in the Scottish Parliament to do whatever we think it takes to expose the hollowness of the SNP.
Glenn Campbell: But that's not what you said.
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well let me make this clear. On Wednesday the SNP refused our challenge, they confirmed it again on Thursday...
Glenn Campbell: But..you said you had spoken to the Prime Minister earlier that evening, and when asked directly if he endorsed your call for a referendum, you said 'Yes'. That's not true.
Wendy Alexander MSP: He has endorsed the right of Labour in the Scottish Parliament to lead on how we expose the SNP in the Scottish Parliament.
Glenn Campbell: But he has not endorsed your call for an early referendum.Wendy Alexander MSP: He's endorsed the right of Labour in Scotland...Glenn Campbell: Has he endorsed your call for a referendum?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well I mean understandably I am not -and this is important- I am not calling on the Prime Minister in Westminster to pursue a referendum. I think people would think that was a very odd thing to happen in Westminster. This is about whether in Scotland...
Glenn Campbell: Isn't Westminster the only parliament that can call a referendum that would be binding?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well, the SNP have put forward a proposal to call for a referendum in Scotland, we've said that there's no blank cheque but we will look at that issue, and they've declined, declined the chance to let Scotland speak...
Glenn Campbell: But obviously Gordon Brown has declined the opportunity to back your call for an early referendum on independence. Isn't the truth in all of this that what you did was try to bounce him into support by broadcasting his support on Newsnight on Tuesday?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, I think what yo see is the press having a lot of fun this week. The big issue...I mean look at the press today, the Prime Minister is clear in his support for me, as people know we're great friends, we go back a long way, the issue is whether the tactics for pursuing the SNP in Scotland is the arena where Labour in Scotland lead in the Scottish Parliament, we have done so this week, goodness me, you spent years telling us that we should take the initiative. We take the initiative, put the SNP behind the eight ball, and the SNP's bluff was called. They are as yellow as the colour yellow that supports their party.
Glenn Campbell: Do you accept though that the SNP's referendum is now the only chance of a public vote on Scotland's constitutional future?
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, well self-evidently it's not. I mean the Tories and the Liberals have to explain to people why they believe that Scots have no right to speak on this issue. What happened this week and what history will record is that Labour was saying 'We do think'. This issue's been around for thirty years, the SNP are lying when they say a majority of people in Scotland supports independence...
Glenn Campbell: But this position you've already clarified is not Labour's position. This is Wendy Alexander's position. It may be the position of the Labour group at Holyrood but it is not the Labour Party's position, it's not the Prime Minister's position, it's not the position of the UK cabinet, including your own brother. It's your position, you tried to bounce them, and it didn't work.
Wendy Alexander MSP: No. The decision as to whether the referendum has support in the Scottish Parliament is a matter for the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament. Part of devolution is to say we will harry the SNP to bring forward a bill to let Scotland choose, and the SNP are not letting us do so.
Glenn Campbell: Well they say that they'll bring forward their bill on January 2010, and they say that they'd like to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2010 after the last possible date for the UK general election. In those circumstances will you back their bill?
Wendy Alexander MSP: What we've said is that we do want Scotland to choose, we'll scrutinise their bill, I've been saying that all week, what is deeply dishonest...
Glenn Campbell: Will you back their bill though?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well there's no blank cheques here. We want to see the bill, we want to see the question, but I...
Glenn Campbell: But instinctively you're in favour of a referendum now?
Wendy Alexander MSP: I have called the SNP's bluff. They will not let Scotland speak.
Glenn Campbell: They're sticking to their manifesto commitment!
Wendy Alexander MSP: No, the reason for this is they want to fray the relationship with the rest of the UK for the whole of the foreseeable future...
Glenn Campbell: Now I understand something of the politics of independence, what I don't understand yet in this interview: whether or not you are going to lead Labour MSPs to support an independence referendum in 2010?
Wendy Alexander MSP: We have said that the people of Scotland should be allowed to speak and we will not vote down the opportunity for Scotland to speak, but we will want to harry them on things like what the question is, what the process is, we think it is right after thirty years that Scotland be given the chance to speak, and I just want to say...
Glenn Campbell: But this is really important, because you're now saying...I'd like you to clarify, are you saying here right now that you are going to back the SNP's independence referendum -with a couple of caveats- and theefore there shall be a referendum before the next Holyrood elections?
Wendy Alexander MSP: Well we have said this week that we believe that the voice of Scotland should be heard and the SNP are running scared, and they have got to stop claiming as Nicola Sturgeon claimed this week that there is majority support for independence. The truth is that they are running scared and they are trying to wait for a time that is politically oportune to them and they have also made clear this week, most importantly, that they are willing to put David Cameron into number 10...
It hurts just to read it doesn't it!
Friday, 9 May 2008
Scottish Strains
A couple of days ago I noted that Wendy Alexander had, in the face of disastrous local election for the English and Welsh parts of Labour and having seen polls showing SNP popularity continuing to surge, decided that she wanted a referendum on Scottish independence right now. I thought that this would get interesting very quickly, and it sure has!
Wendy had told the media of her new plan and had confirmed that Gordon Brown supported her. Only the next day Gordon Brown told the Commons that Wendy had not ion fact called for a referendum and that we all misheard. Back comes Wendy at First Minister's Questions, again making it clear that she wanted the referendum but also claiming that Gordon Brown was not wrong.
Uh......what?
It's quite clear what's happened here. Wendy has, for some time, thought that the best option was to get a referendum ASAP. She is confident that the British Nationalists would win a referendum in 2008/09, especially if she gets to set the question asked. She is scared that if Scotland waits until 2010, when there may well be a Tory government in London and the SNP polls would have continued to rise then the Union may be in trouble. She is also concerned about Alex Salmond getting to choose the question asked.
Numerous polls on independence have had numerous different result - ranging from 19% support to 41% support (with 40% against). The varying factor is the question. If the question contains a reference to £leaving the Union" or "breaking up the Union" then support for independence falls. If the question is the one Alex wants "something along the lines of "would you support the Scottish government entering independence negotiations with the UK government " the yes vote soars. Wendy's thinking therefore is that a quick snap referendum will get the results the Brit Nats want.
Gordon Brown is not so keen. Apparently Wendy has been bugging him about this for some time, and he has always ruled against a referendum. This makes sense, he is after all Mr Prudence and he does not want to be the man who "lost" the Union. He sees the referendum as a risk they should avoid at all costs. As far as Gordon was concerned, his word was final.
But then things changed, Brown got humiliated on May 1st, and Wendy sensed an opportunity to bounce him. She made the unilateral policy switch, told the world that Gordon supported her, then sat back and waited for Gordon to confirm this. She, wrongly, thought that he would have to do so to save face. Unfortunately for Wendy, Gordon didn't play ball. Now we're left with the two leaders saying the total opposite but laughably insisting that they are in agreement!
To make matters worse for Wendy, she's now been told that it is impossible for her to force an early referendum. The SNP are in government and Holyrood rules state that if the government are planning a bill on an issue, no other MSP can do a separate bill. Since the SNP are planning a referendum bill for 2010, Wendy has no power to bring in an earlier bill. In other words her risky bluff was all for nothing.
Where does that leave Scotland, and where does it leave Wendy? Hard to tell. The SNP will not budge - they had 2010 as the referendum date in their manifesto and can point out that they have a mandate to wait until then. The problem now for Wendy is that when the SNP bill comes before Holyrood it will be on the SNP's terms and using the SNP's wording. She can't vote against it as that would be another u turn (making a full circle). Has she just sold herself, her party and the Union down the river?
Wendy had told the media of her new plan and had confirmed that Gordon Brown supported her. Only the next day Gordon Brown told the Commons that Wendy had not ion fact called for a referendum and that we all misheard. Back comes Wendy at First Minister's Questions, again making it clear that she wanted the referendum but also claiming that Gordon Brown was not wrong.
Uh......what?
It's quite clear what's happened here. Wendy has, for some time, thought that the best option was to get a referendum ASAP. She is confident that the British Nationalists would win a referendum in 2008/09, especially if she gets to set the question asked. She is scared that if Scotland waits until 2010, when there may well be a Tory government in London and the SNP polls would have continued to rise then the Union may be in trouble. She is also concerned about Alex Salmond getting to choose the question asked.
Numerous polls on independence have had numerous different result - ranging from 19% support to 41% support (with 40% against). The varying factor is the question. If the question contains a reference to £leaving the Union" or "breaking up the Union" then support for independence falls. If the question is the one Alex wants "something along the lines of "would you support the Scottish government entering independence negotiations with the UK government " the yes vote soars. Wendy's thinking therefore is that a quick snap referendum will get the results the Brit Nats want.
Gordon Brown is not so keen. Apparently Wendy has been bugging him about this for some time, and he has always ruled against a referendum. This makes sense, he is after all Mr Prudence and he does not want to be the man who "lost" the Union. He sees the referendum as a risk they should avoid at all costs. As far as Gordon was concerned, his word was final.
But then things changed, Brown got humiliated on May 1st, and Wendy sensed an opportunity to bounce him. She made the unilateral policy switch, told the world that Gordon supported her, then sat back and waited for Gordon to confirm this. She, wrongly, thought that he would have to do so to save face. Unfortunately for Wendy, Gordon didn't play ball. Now we're left with the two leaders saying the total opposite but laughably insisting that they are in agreement!
To make matters worse for Wendy, she's now been told that it is impossible for her to force an early referendum. The SNP are in government and Holyrood rules state that if the government are planning a bill on an issue, no other MSP can do a separate bill. Since the SNP are planning a referendum bill for 2010, Wendy has no power to bring in an earlier bill. In other words her risky bluff was all for nothing.
Where does that leave Scotland, and where does it leave Wendy? Hard to tell. The SNP will not budge - they had 2010 as the referendum date in their manifesto and can point out that they have a mandate to wait until then. The problem now for Wendy is that when the SNP bill comes before Holyrood it will be on the SNP's terms and using the SNP's wording. She can't vote against it as that would be another u turn (making a full circle). Has she just sold herself, her party and the Union down the river?
Saturday, 12 January 2008
Super SNP
Daily Mail TV Listings:
BBC: Climate Change: Britain under threat. (Not in Scotland)
Now I know the SNP and Salmond are good, but THAT good?
(Kudos to O'Neill for spotting it)
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