Fa Cup

Go Cardiff!

Hmm I Wonder

A Daily Mirror reader writes in to his favorite paper saying...

I don't understand why Sarah Ferguson has such a low self image

I would advise the worried writer to turn to page 29 of the same edition where regular Mirror columnist Paul Routledge says...

Britain is eating itself to death says the Duchess of Pork, oh sorry York. She's certainly doing her best to help, having ballooned to 15st 10lbs at one point.

Yes, i wonder just why she has such a low self-image...!

Question Time Cardiff

Question Time tonight (11pm BB1 Wales, 10.35pm BB1EverywhereElse) is from the Armadillo down the Bay. Helen Mary Jones is the token Welsh politician, flanked by London Health Secretary Alan Johnson, Tory shadow minister for business (and sometimes Have I Got News For You wannabe comedian) Alan Duncan, Cherie Blair's sister and one of the ex-Dragons Den millionaires Simon Woodroffe.

If you're sad enough to be getting drunk while watching a politicial talk programme, here's a drinking game for you...

- 2 fingers every time the Tory mentions 10p tax
- 2 fingers every time Helen Mary brags about the Plaid-LD deal in Cardiff
- 2 fingers every time Alan Johnson discusses London's health policy even though it has no impact on Cardiff
- 2 fingers every time Lauren Booth tries to explain how different she is from her sister
- 2 fingers each time rich boy Woodroffe mentions his time on Dragons Den or Yo! Sushi

- And finally - Down your whole drink on the obligatory question on whether or not the panel will be supporting cardiff City on Saturday.

Update: The Tory mentioned the tax often enough to get you very drunk, Woodroffe managed to fit in Yo! Sushi into his first answer and you would have had to down the drink as the Cardiff City question came along (what a surprise!)

Apparently, according to Dimbelby, Question Time cannot spend a single second discussing Welsh Assembly matters in their Cardiff programme because people outside Wales won't understand it but it can devote a whole question to over-testing of young kids. We had to depend on the audience to point out that there are much less tests in Wales (no Primary school sats)

I also love how poor the Lib Dem stooge who asked the Welsh Assembly question was at hiding the fact that he was a stooge!

Capital Ruled

Cardiff already has the "One-Wales" coalition, now it has the "Capital Vision" coalition

The Lib-Dems and Plaid have signed a coalition deal to run Cardiff. The Libs, being by far the largest party, have Rodney Berman back in the Council leader role and have most of the cabinet seats. Neil McEvoy, Plaid's group leader and a man who until two weeks ago had a very un-friendly relationship with Rodney, becomes Deputy Leader.

Plaid will have one other cabinet spot along with the Chair of the scrutiny committee and the regulatory committee. The rst will go to the Lib Dems.

And, as predicted by none other than yours truly (wehei!), the deal-maker was an amendment to the Libs failed school reorganisation plan. In a weird situation Plaid had previously refused to vote for a plan opening more Welsh-language schools because it meant English-language schools closing. I understand that the new deal will open a new welsh-language primary and a new welsh-language secondary school - without closing the English Lansdown and Radnor. The new primary will be in Canton, the new Secondary somewhere in the city centre.

Other parts of the deal include:

Halal food made available in some schools
No congestion charge
The free bicycle scheme you see when abroad
No PFI
Upgrade sport pitches
Try and get powers to suspend the right to buy council houses

All of those are very plaid-centric policies (no sup rise seeing as how I'm learning about them through a Plaid statement!) I'm sure there's many more Lib Dem centric policies, we'll see.

Interesting two last parts to the agreement. Firstly the Council will give a day off to all of it's staff on St David's Day. Secondly the Council will actively support the Yes campaign whenever the referendum for powers comes.

End of the Road

Ex-Democratic Cadidate John Edwards is apparently poised to back Obama in the next few hours.

I think the technical term for that is Game Set and Match to Obama.

Bring Them On

The Scottish Political Editor for the Herald, Douglas Fraser, has a new scoop which is set to rock the Wendy-Gordon relationship even further...

Wendy Alexander is set to announce a new challenge to the SNP about the commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Scheduled for 2014, she is to tell Alex Salmond to "bring them on" – arguing that if the SNP is genuine in its enthusiasm for staging the Games in Glasgow, it should legislate for them to take place the year before then, in 2013.

Labour's thinking is that it needs to show "the hollowness of the SNP's commitment to the Commonwealth Games". According to one insider: "If New Delhi can stage the games in 2010, what on earth are we waiting for? If Alex Salmond were really behind Glasgow's games, he could even try to get in ahead of the Indian capital and have the Games next year."

The sudden shift of tactics is understood to have caused tensions with Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who fears that if Scottish Labour wants the Glasgow Commonwealth Games to be staged one year earlier than planned, he may come under pressure to bring the London Olympics forward to 2011 - potentially sending costs soaring. His spokesman says is is "not persuaded" of the case for "bringing them on", despite Ms Alexander telling associates she thinks he has agreed.

If the SNP First Minister refuses to bring forward the date of the Commonwealth Games, instead sticking to the existing timetable, sources close to Wendy Alexander say that she will be able to claim that she has called Alex Salmond's bluff, and she will label him "a cowardly custard".

A bit of satire will always raise a smile!

Anyone Speak German?

First a post about France, now about Germany - I'm getting world-wise!

In a pathetically vain exercise I typed the name of this blog into Google Blog Search (I know I know, how sad!) and found this paragraph from a German Blog

Das würde den Seperatisten Tür und Tor öffnen und die Chancen wären gar nicht so schlecht das ihr Vorhaben gelingt (siehe auch AMLWCH TO MAGOR). Aber der Vorschlag kam nun einmal nicht von Gordon Brown selbst, denn der zusammen mit den anderen große Parteien eine Kommission eingesetzt, welche das Referendum unterlaufen soll, indem es weitergehende Autonomie an den nördlichen Landesteil zugesteht.

The only things I understand there are Seperatism, Autonomous, Referendum and Gordon Brown, so i assume it's talking about the Wendy-Gordon hoo-ha. Intertran is (obviously) no help - Any German speakers out there?

By-Election Fears

We are closing in on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election where ex-Am Tamsin Dunwoody is standing for Labour in her late mother's seat. Polling indicate that Labour's 7,000 plus majority will be overturned by the Tories. Incredibly the Tories have not gained a seat in a by-election since Mitcham and Morden in 1983 - that's 25 whole years!

Thee have not won a previously Labour seat in a by-election since Ilford North in 1978 - a whole three decades ago!

I see more "worst week ever ever for Brown - honestly now" headlines on the horizon (copyright of the Daily Mail, Daily telegraph, Independent, Guardian, Daily Express, Sun, Mirror, Western Mail, Daily Post and the Tivy-Side Advertiser!)

Uncyclopedia on Wales

Browsing around the internet I found this site - Uncyclopedia.

It's a satirical take on wikipedia - and some of the pages on Wales are very well done.

Take a look at the Welsh Language page, the Cardiff page and Aberystwyth page

Top marks goes to the Wales page. Who ever said the Welsh couldn't laugh at themselves!

Be Glad

The (absence of) the new Welsh language LCO is back in the news following Rhodri Glyn's (re)announcement that 57 more bodies are to be brought under the old Welsh Language Act. Cymdeithas yr Iaith (Welsh Language Society) have criticised the announcement and demanded a new Welsh Language Act.

The scope of such new Act is something that will be argued and debated until Judgement Day, but Welsh speakers should be glad that they're not speaking a minority language in France. The French have refused to sign the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. According to French Culture Miniser Mme Christine Albanel having "an inviolable right to speak a regional language, notably in the public sphere" is "against constitutional priniples fundamental to the indivisbility of the Republic, equality in front of the law and the unity of the French people"

I'm off to use InterTran to work out how to paint "Shut Up French" in Breton, Basque and Catalan on a barn!

Something of the Night

Wendy Alexander appeared on the Scottish Politics Show yesterday, and gosh was it painful. She seems to have been left dazed and confused by the past week or so, and is trying desperately to portray herself, and Labour, as the "winners" of the happenings of the last week. Listening to her mumble and stutter it reminded me of Michael Howard's famous "Did you threaten to overrule" interview in that she simply couldn't answer the question put to her.

Clearly Wendy had prepared a stock answer to the expected question on the referendum (something to do with "exposing the SNP's hollowness" and "Gordon Brown has endorsed my right to choose tactics") and stuck by them, even when they didn't answer the questions asked!

You can see the interview here. Thankfully Ordovicius has provided a transcript of the interview, and it deserves to be quoted here...

Glenn Campbell: Factual question first of all: Who is the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland?

Wendy Alexander MSP: [sighs] Gordon Brown is the leader of the Labour Party and I am leader of the Labour Party in the Scottish Parliament, and I think that goes to the heart of this issue, because...

Glenn Campbell: He's the leader in Scotland as well as elsewhere in the country..

Wendy Alexander MSP: Yes.

Glenn Campbell: In those circumstances then, when he's told the Telegraph newspaper this morning that he was "not persuaded" of the case of a referendum, was he speaking for the Scottish Labour Party?

Wendy Alexander MSP: No and he wouldn't seek to do so. What he was saying is laying out his position on the referendum. Where Gordon and I are at one is we want to expose the hollowness of the SNP and I have the First Minister's -Prime Minister's support- in pursuing whatever tactics are right in the Scottish Parliament. I mean this goes to the heart of the devolution settlement...

Glenn Campbell: But this is fascinating, you're saying that the Prime Minister who is as you've acknowledged the leader of the Labour Party everywhere, that his position is not the same as the position of the Scottish Labour Party.

Wendy Alexander MSP: No, what the Prime Minister said to me this week was that he supported my right to pursue whatever tactics we need to pursue in the Scottish Parliament to expose the hollowness of the SNP's position, and what we've learned this week is that the SNP are unwilling to let Scotland speak...

Glenn Campbell: We'll come onto that in a moment. Is this your universal declaration of the independence for the Labour Party at Holyrood?

Wendy Alexander MSP: No, far from it. What I've been about is so we can say that the SNP have been in power for a year, it's quite clear that their agenda is to fray the relationship with the rest of the UK, they want to parade around Scotland claiming there's support for independence, manifestly there's not...

Glenn Campbell: Are you going to toe the London-Labour Party line?

Wendy Alexander MSP: No what it's..it's not about towing a line it's about tactics in the Scottish Parliament to harry and expose the dishonesty of the SNP is one for Labour in the Scottish Parliament, and I have the support of the Labour Party in doing that.

Glenn Campbell: Even if that means gambling with the constitutional future of Scotland?

Wendy Alexander MSP: I don't think it's gambling with the constitutional future of Scotland to say we trust the people. I mean a year ago Labour in Scotland lost an election and I said we would listen. We've listened to people in Scotland and I think two things they want is that we look again at devolution, and through the Calman Commission which I proposed we're doing that, and the second thing is that Scotland does want to have its say and I think in a moment you'll have the Tories on...they have to explain why they think Scotland shouldn't have a say in the matter, and the SNP have to tell us why they don't believe Scotland should have a chance to speak before the next general election.

Glenn Campbell: Okay, well can you help us with a few things: If the Prime Minister is not persuaded of the case for an independence referendum why did you tell Newsnight Scotland on Tuesday that he had endorsed your call?

Wendy Alexander MSP: I said that he had endorsed my right to pursue whatever tactics were right in the Scottish Parliament to expose the SNP, including my right to call on them.

Glenn Campbell: What you were asked was, did the Prime Minister endorse your call for a referendum and you answered 'Yes'.

Wendy Alexander MSP: The Prime Minister has endorsed my right as the leader of Labour in the Scottish Parliament to do whatever we think it takes to expose the hollowness of the SNP.

Glenn Campbell: But that's not what you said.

Wendy Alexander MSP: Well let me make this clear. On Wednesday the SNP refused our challenge, they confirmed it again on Thursday...

Glenn Campbell: But..you said you had spoken to the Prime Minister earlier that evening, and when asked directly if he endorsed your call for a referendum, you said 'Yes'. That's not true.

Wendy Alexander MSP: He has endorsed the right of Labour in the Scottish Parliament to lead on how we expose the SNP in the Scottish Parliament.

Glenn Campbell: But he has not endorsed your call for an early referendum.Wendy Alexander MSP: He's endorsed the right of Labour in Scotland...Glenn Campbell: Has he endorsed your call for a referendum?

Wendy Alexander MSP: Well I mean understandably I am not -and this is important- I am not calling on the Prime Minister in Westminster to pursue a referendum. I think people would think that was a very odd thing to happen in Westminster. This is about whether in Scotland...

Glenn Campbell: Isn't Westminster the only parliament that can call a referendum that would be binding?

Wendy Alexander MSP: Well, the SNP have put forward a proposal to call for a referendum in Scotland, we've said that there's no blank cheque but we will look at that issue, and they've declined, declined the chance to let Scotland speak...

Glenn Campbell: But obviously Gordon Brown has declined the opportunity to back your call for an early referendum on independence. Isn't the truth in all of this that what you did was try to bounce him into support by broadcasting his support on Newsnight on Tuesday?

Wendy Alexander MSP: No, I think what yo see is the press having a lot of fun this week. The big issue...I mean look at the press today, the Prime Minister is clear in his support for me, as people know we're great friends, we go back a long way, the issue is whether the tactics for pursuing the SNP in Scotland is the arena where Labour in Scotland lead in the Scottish Parliament, we have done so this week, goodness me, you spent years telling us that we should take the initiative. We take the initiative, put the SNP behind the eight ball, and the SNP's bluff was called. They are as yellow as the colour yellow that supports their party.

Glenn Campbell: Do you accept though that the SNP's referendum is now the only chance of a public vote on Scotland's constitutional future?

Wendy Alexander MSP: No, well self-evidently it's not. I mean the Tories and the Liberals have to explain to people why they believe that Scots have no right to speak on this issue. What happened this week and what history will record is that Labour was saying 'We do think'. This issue's been around for thirty years, the SNP are lying when they say a majority of people in Scotland supports independence...

Glenn Campbell: But this position you've already clarified is not Labour's position. This is Wendy Alexander's position. It may be the position of the Labour group at Holyrood but it is not the Labour Party's position, it's not the Prime Minister's position, it's not the position of the UK cabinet, including your own brother. It's your position, you tried to bounce them, and it didn't work.

Wendy Alexander MSP: No. The decision as to whether the referendum has support in the Scottish Parliament is a matter for the Labour group in the Scottish Parliament. Part of devolution is to say we will harry the SNP to bring forward a bill to let Scotland choose, and the SNP are not letting us do so.

Glenn Campbell: Well they say that they'll bring forward their bill on January 2010, and they say that they'd like to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2010 after the last possible date for the UK general election. In those circumstances will you back their bill?

Wendy Alexander MSP: What we've said is that we do want Scotland to choose, we'll scrutinise their bill, I've been saying that all week, what is deeply dishonest...

Glenn Campbell: Will you back their bill though?

Wendy Alexander MSP: Well there's no blank cheques here. We want to see the bill, we want to see the question, but I...

Glenn Campbell: But instinctively you're in favour of a referendum now?

Wendy Alexander MSP: I have called the SNP's bluff. They will not let Scotland speak.

Glenn Campbell: They're sticking to their manifesto commitment!

Wendy Alexander MSP: No, the reason for this is they want to fray the relationship with the rest of the UK for the whole of the foreseeable future...

Glenn Campbell: Now I understand something of the politics of independence, what I don't understand yet in this interview: whether or not you are going to lead Labour MSPs to support an independence referendum in 2010?

Wendy Alexander MSP: We have said that the people of Scotland should be allowed to speak and we will not vote down the opportunity for Scotland to speak, but we will want to harry them on things like what the question is, what the process is, we think it is right after thirty years that Scotland be given the chance to speak, and I just want to say...

Glenn Campbell: But this is really important, because you're now saying...I'd like you to clarify, are you saying here right now that you are going to back the SNP's independence referendum -with a couple of caveats- and theefore there shall be a referendum before the next Holyrood elections?

Wendy Alexander MSP: Well we have said this week that we believe that the voice of Scotland should be heard and the SNP are running scared, and they have got to stop claiming as Nicola Sturgeon claimed this week that there is majority support for independence. The truth is that they are running scared and they are trying to wait for a time that is politically oportune to them and they have also made clear this week, most importantly, that they are willing to put David Cameron into number 10...

It hurts just to read it doesn't it!

Spinning Harri

New London Mayor Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson (honestly!) has hired a new Director of Communications to spin his way through his term as the Chief of the English capital.

The man with the impossible job of containing Boris is ex BBC Cymru, BBC Wales and BBC reporter Guto Harri.

Apparently Guto has spent the last few weeks advising the ex-opposition and future leader (but currently who knows what) of Zimbabwe Morgan Tsvangirai. According to Guto Harri

If I can handle Zimbabwean politics I should be able to handle Boris Johnson

Don't be so sure!

Scottish Strains

A couple of days ago I noted that Wendy Alexander had, in the face of disastrous local election for the English and Welsh parts of Labour and having seen polls showing SNP popularity continuing to surge, decided that she wanted a referendum on Scottish independence right now. I thought that this would get interesting very quickly, and it sure has!

Wendy had told the media of her new plan and had confirmed that Gordon Brown supported her. Only the next day Gordon Brown told the Commons that Wendy had not ion fact called for a referendum and that we all misheard. Back comes Wendy at First Minister's Questions, again making it clear that she wanted the referendum but also claiming that Gordon Brown was not wrong.

Uh......what?

It's quite clear what's happened here. Wendy has, for some time, thought that the best option was to get a referendum ASAP. She is confident that the British Nationalists would win a referendum in 2008/09, especially if she gets to set the question asked. She is scared that if Scotland waits until 2010, when there may well be a Tory government in London and the SNP polls would have continued to rise then the Union may be in trouble. She is also concerned about Alex Salmond getting to choose the question asked.

Numerous polls on independence have had numerous different result - ranging from 19% support to 41% support (with 40% against). The varying factor is the question. If the question contains a reference to £leaving the Union" or "breaking up the Union" then support for independence falls. If the question is the one Alex wants "something along the lines of "would you support the Scottish government entering independence negotiations with the UK government " the yes vote soars. Wendy's thinking therefore is that a quick snap referendum will get the results the Brit Nats want.

Gordon Brown is not so keen. Apparently Wendy has been bugging him about this for some time, and he has always ruled against a referendum. This makes sense, he is after all Mr Prudence and he does not want to be the man who "lost" the Union. He sees the referendum as a risk they should avoid at all costs. As far as Gordon was concerned, his word was final.

But then things changed, Brown got humiliated on May 1st, and Wendy sensed an opportunity to bounce him. She made the unilateral policy switch, told the world that Gordon supported her, then sat back and waited for Gordon to confirm this. She, wrongly, thought that he would have to do so to save face. Unfortunately for Wendy, Gordon didn't play ball. Now we're left with the two leaders saying the total opposite but laughably insisting that they are in agreement!

To make matters worse for Wendy, she's now been told that it is impossible for her to force an early referendum. The SNP are in government and Holyrood rules state that if the government are planning a bill on an issue, no other MSP can do a separate bill. Since the SNP are planning a referendum bill for 2010, Wendy has no power to bring in an earlier bill. In other words her risky bluff was all for nothing.

Where does that leave Scotland, and where does it leave Wendy? Hard to tell. The SNP will not budge - they had 2010 as the referendum date in their manifesto and can point out that they have a mandate to wait until then. The problem now for Wendy is that when the SNP bill comes before Holyrood it will be on the SNP's terms and using the SNP's wording. She can't vote against it as that would be another u turn (making a full circle). Has she just sold herself, her party and the Union down the river?

Late Lib

Mike German has announec that he will step down as Lib Dem leader in October this year. You'd have imagined that such an announcement would have been music to the years of some of the other Liberal AM's (i.e. Peter Black and Kirsty Williams). The leadership election that never was last year can now begin for real.

Peter Black however seems to be fuming. He wants his shot at the top now, not in 6 months time. Peter believes that Mike German had promised to step down straight after the local elections and indicates that the Assembly Group were at best unhappy with the October date.

And, to be fair to Peter, this is true. In October 2007 Mike German said that he would step down

as soon as seems sensible and practicable (after the local elections)

Ah well Peter, it's only a few more months. Don't you remember the Guinness ads? All that about good things come to those who wait. Just 6 months from now you'll finally be able to enjoy the moment that Kirsty becomes the new Welsh Lib Dem leader.

This Could Get Interesting

When your party receives a mid-term drubbing in the polling stationthe most important thing to do is not panic and go do something that could make things much worse. You should sit back, take a deep breath and try and work out what went wrong and how to remedy it.

Somebody forgot to tell Wendy Alexander, leader of the Scottish Labour Party.

Even though not one Scottish voter cast judgement on May 1st the results in Wales and England, along with the surge in support for the SNP I've previously discussed, ha put Wendy into panic mode. Fellow Labour MSP's knew nothing about her decision to announce in a BBC interview that Scottish Labour would support a referendum on independence. This is a complete u-turn from the party's previous position and means that between the SNP and Labour there is enough Holyrood votes to make the referendum a reality.

This WILL be interesting!

Aftermath Snippets

Just a few additional snippets from the aftermath of the elections.

Labour will regain power in Bridgend as they have done a deal with two independents. The previous "Everyone but Labour" coalition is therefore out and this has to be chalked up as a Labour success. I'm sure however that Labour is still gutted it didn't get the additional seat it needed for an outright majority, that would have given them much-needed good press.

Plaid are apparently confident of running Gwynedd, Carmarthenshire and Caerphilly. They are easily the largest party in Gwynedd and Carmarthenshire, and obtaining power in the latter would be a big coup for them. They are level with Labour in Caerphilly and although I personally don't know who 8 of the 9 power-wielding independents are, Plaid seem confident that at least 5 will support them. In case you are wondering, the 1 independent I do know a bit about, and you will too, is none other than Ron Davies, the father of devolution. His wife was also elected as a Plaid councillor. What price Ron Davies working with Plaid against Labour?

Just in case Gordon Brown isn't depressed enough to have been trounced by the Tories in England he will this morning learn that a new poll in Scotland puts SNP support at it's highest ever point of 45%.

Finally, Plaid members are pointing out that they have a majority of Council seats within the Cardiff West constituency. I'm sure that will go down well with the sitting Assembly member for Cardiff West (A little-known AM called First Minister Rhodri Morgan!)

Who, What and Where

So election day is over for another month and, for once, we actually had quite an interesting local election that has left countless ex-Councillors £15,000 a year worse off. Here's the blow-by-blow of each council.

ANGLESEY
Lot of councillors booted out on the island, but mostly independents losing to independents. Labour will spin their +5 as a great result, but most of those were independent councillors who had been booted out of the party by Labour in 2004 for making deals with Plaid who have now been greeted back into the fold. The most notable result was infamous planning committee member John Arthur Jones being thrashed by Plaid. Both the Tories and Lib Dems also made gains as the Council remains NOC.

BLAENAU GWENT
Labour, very predictably, lose control of Blaenau Gwent to NOC. 8 of their Councillors get the boot, mostly to independents. Labour has now lost all of it's Blaenau Gwent power; the Council, the London seat and the Assembly seat.The independents could stick the knife in and prevent Labour from even being part of the administration here.

BRIDGEND
Along with Neath, the good news area for Labour. They gained 5 seats with the Lib Dems, Tories and independents slipping. Unfortunately for Labour this left them 1 seat short of seizing the Council from NOC. The "Everyone-But-Labour" coalition will struggle without an outright majority.

UPDATE:BBC reports that Labour have struck a deal with two independents, meaning that they will form a cabinet.

CAERPHILLY
Probably the Council that's hardest to guess where it goes from here after Labour loses to NOC. Labour losses to Plaid sees them both with 32 seats. The balance of power is held by the 9 independents - whichever party can reach an agreement with at least 5 of them will rule Caerphilly.

CARDIFF
An absolute disaster for Labour in the capital with the loss of 14 seats. The Tories, Lib Dems and Plaid all benefit in a council that remains NOC. The school re-organisation plans is the key here. Plaid voted against the proposals last time, angering many of their supporters in doing so. Demand for Welsh-language education in the capital far outstrips demand and the failure to agree a re-organisation has left the system in a spin. If the Lib Dems make some token changes to their plan, leaving a few more English-language schools open, then expect Plaid to support it and a Yellow-Green coalition to rule Cardiff.

CARMARTHEN
Probably Plaid's greatest success this time round. A gain of 14 seats from Labour gives them a total of 30. Not enough to seize the Council from NOC, but still significant. Since 1999 Carmarthen is the one place where Plaid has truly managed to turn Green. Adam Price has made the previously safe Dr Alan Labour seat a Plaid stronghold and come next year Plaid will have an outside shot of the Llanelli scalp. Helen Mary has the Assembly seat and yesterday Plaid seized some big Labour seats in the Saucepan Town.

CEREDIGION
Plaid won't be sure whether they should celebrate or curse their luck in Ceredigion. A gain of 3 seats makes them easily the largest party but they were 3 seats short of seizing the Council from NOC. Their candidate for the Lib Dem held parliamentary seat also lost his Council seat making a big dent in their hopes of recapturing Ceredigion next year. In a typical Lib Dem maneuver their MP worked hard in the ward of the Plaid candidate and will be very pleased with the result. Plaid need to convince three of the 12 independents to support them if they are to take control of Ceredigion - but expect the Council to continue to be ruled by an "Everyone-but-Plaid" Alliance.

CONWY
Great result for the Tories, gaining 8 seats in an area where they will hope to win a London seat next year. Plaid saw a small gain while Labour, Lib Dems and the Independents lost ground. The Council remains NOC with the Tories easily the biggest party and Plaid pushing Labour to third place.

DENBIGHSHIRE
Very similar to Conwy, the Tories make big gains in a Council that remains NOC, this time at the expense of independents. Small gains for Plaid and the Lib Dems while Labour sit still.

FLINTSHIRE
Another catastrophe for Labour, 13 councillors lose their seat as the Council slips to NOC. Independents and Tories make the big gains with Plaid sitting still and the Lib Dems gaining 1.

GWYNEDD
The fly in Plaid's ointment in this election, their stronghold slips to NOC. If any of the Council elections has to be looked at separately, this is it. While Plaid lost 8, Labour also lost 4 and the Lib Dems lost 1. The Tories remain nonexistent. The big winners were independents and Llais Gwynedd -the protest party set up to oppose the Council's school reorganisation plan. Plaid lose their Council leader as well as Dafydd Iwan, the Party's President. Don't be surprised however if Plaid actually get a majority here before 2012 -if they humbly back off the school plan then they might well entice 3 of the independents/Llais Gwynedd into their fold before the next election. The national party has to be fuming at their Gwynedd councillors for creating this situation as it puts a bad spin on what was otherwise a good day for the nationalists.

MERTHYR
Another Labour loss to NOC. Independents and Lib Dems benefit. Independents now have the number to control this council without either of the big named parties.

MONMOUTHSIRE
One of the "sure fire bets" of the election as the Tories hold with an increased majority. Lib Dems also make gains while Labour and Plaid slip a little.

NEATH
Easily Labour's best result of the day.The collapse of the Ratepayer's Association saw Labour gain 1 seat and retain control of the Council. Plaid and the Lib Dems also made small gains.

NEWPORT
Labour's last city is lost to NOC.Even though there are 6 seats still to be determined (elections postponed due to the death of two candidates) Labour cannot regain their majority. The best they can hope for is to get exactly half the seats. Their fate was sealed when two 3-seat wards went to a recount - Labour eventually lost half of them. The loss of 8 seats leaves them only 2 ahead of the Tories. We will probably have to wait until the last 6 seats are determined before we know where the balance of power lies. If Labour gets them all, they could deal with the 1 independent to get a working majority. If any of the other 3 parties get just one of the seats, a Rainbow coalition could rule in Wales' second City.

PEMBROKSHIRE
A Labour slip at the expense of the Tories leave all three big parties with 5 seats. The Lib Dems follow closely with 3 but, as usual in this NOC Council, the power on Pembroke remains with the independents.

POWYS
The Tories take nine seats from the independents, but Powys is, and always will be, a NOC Council ruled by the independents.

RHONDDA
Labour hold on comfortably but take a hit of 12 seats. Chris Bryant's "Plaid are dead in Rhondda" rings a little hollow as the nationalists gain 7 seats. Plaid actually took 10 from Labour, but lost a seat each to the Lib Dems, independents and, surprisingly, the Tories. Rhondda now has a Tory councillor - now those are words I never though I'd be saying!

SWANSEA
Not much change here. Only thing of note is Plaid losing 3 out of their 4 councillors-not a good result for them. Council remains NOC, Labour remains largest party.

TORFAEN
A bad night for Labour would have seen them lose Newport, Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Flint. Losing Torfaen to NOC was not in the script, not even in the script of their disaster movie. 16 Labour Councillors were booted out, mostly to Independents. Both the Tories and Plaid made gains, pushing the Lib Dems from 2nd to 4th place.

VALE OF GLAMORGAN
Again very predictably the Tories seize control of the Vale from NOC, the only Council to be "won" by anyone in this election. They took 5 councillors from labour and Plaid - enough for a 3 seat majority.

WREXHAM
Labour decimated in North Wales' only city. Even with the threat of Forward Wales now dead, Labour continued to slip. The Lib Dems emerge as the largest party while Plaid will be thrilled to get their first four seats on the Council that remains NOC.


So how will the parties feel?


LABOUR will undoubtedly be dismayed. They lost well over a hundred councillors in Wales. They will blame the results on the London party and on economic forces they could not control. The fact that Labour lost big in England, and that Ken lost to Boris, will support this evaluation. What makes this result so bad for Labour is that it was a defeat after a defeat. 2004 was a disaster for Labour, to fall back even further in 2008 leaves them weak across the country. They will be fearing next year's general election, although any defeats there will be seen in the UK wide context of what is likely to be a very bad election. If they do lose in 2009 they may well be able to regroup by 2012 and regain some of these losses. It is incredible that they now have exactly the same number of Councils in Wales as the Tories do!

The TORIES will be very happy. While they didn't romp home in style they made gains nearly everywhere, getting about 50 extra councillors. They consolidated their control of Momouth and took the Vale of Glamorgan. They had hopes of doing much better in the Capital but won't let that dampen their joy. A very solid result, not exceptional but very solid none the less. The party's gains in England and London will probably overshadow their Welsh gains however.

PLAID will, eventually, see this as a good election. They made gains across the board and have four Councils within their grasps come the next election (Need 3 seats in Ceredigion and Gwynedd, 5 in Caerphilly and 7 in Carmarthen). They won seats in Wrexham and could have a big say as a junior partner in the Capital. In the short term however Plaid will be devastated to lose their only Council, Gwynedd. While they will eventually accept that Gwynedd succumbed to local issues (namely the education reform plan) and isn't a reflection of their national position they will suffer in the short term from the bad press. They will also be less confident of regaining the London Ceredigion seat after their candidate lost his place on the Council. An interesting note to cheer up Plaid. Even though in 1999 they ruled 3 councils (Gwynedd, Rhondda, Caerphilly) and now rule none - they have two more Councillor today than they had in 1999, which was supposedly a "one-off freak" result.

The LIB DEMS will probably feel the opposite of Plaid. In the short term they will see this as a very satisfactory result, they consolidated their status as largest party in most of their Cities and overall won about 15 councillors. They showed that the protest vote they got in 2004 was not just about Iraq and showed that the Welsh party has, to some extent, regrouped after their 2007 calamities. In the long term however this result might not be seen as quite so successful. Labour is even more unpopular now than it was in 2004, both the Tories and Plaid made much bigger gains than the Lib Dems. They now find themselves as the fifth party of Welsh local politics, slipping behind the Tories (Independents are first). Their Ceredigion MP will be very happy to have orchestrated the fall of his Plaid opponent-to-be.

And there we go, the 2008 Welsh local elections are done and dusted. Another 12 months now until we go into General Election mode, then another 12 months until it's the European Parliament time and then another 12 months until it's Assembly elections again. There will also (maybe) be a referendum to fit in too!

Airbursh Nationalists

Burberry's favorite politician Leighton Andrews (also known as the ex-nashie-hater who didn't have Huw Lewis' guts to oppose the red-green coalition) notes that Plaid's (absolutely cringeworthy awful) Party Political Broadcast does not contain either Jill Evans or Adam Price.

Mr Andrews believes that this is because Plaid are embarrassed of the twosome following recent "outbursts". He's talking of course about Jill Evans' opposition to St Athan project (which I've discussed enough already) and Adam Price's comments that Plaid do not rule out a coalition with the Tories.

While it would be rude to point out that the Labour party's PPB did not contain Leighton Andrews (are they embarrassed of you too?) there is one obvious gap in his logic:

Plaid's PPB was first broadcasted on April 15th.
Adam Price made his comments on April 25th.

Hmm!

On a similar note, while PPB's have always been extremely dull, what on earth happened this year? Labour's PPB did not mention Labour, only the Lib Dems and Plaid's PPB was, well, I struggle to find the words. If we all thought Adam Price was a crap actor in that old PPB where he chatted to a cameraman, Ieuan Wyn and Elin Jones must surely have out-crapped him this time!

Note to Plaid Cymru: Politicians cannot act - Your politicians certainly cannot act - Stick to actors will you.

Double Standards

Following on from the "To Speak or Not to Speak" post, see if you can see the teeny weeny bit of hypocrisy in Lib Dem AM Peter Black's opinions here...


Plaid MEP speaks out against Plaid supported St Athan academy because she personally opposes

Peter Black verdict = "lack of discipline and inconsistency"

Lib Dem MP's resign from front bench and vote for Lib Dem opposed-European referendum because they want one

Peter Black verdict = "a proper and principled way to proceed"

Don't you just hate petty party politics?

Robert ap Mugabe

I haven't posted much on the upcoming local elections because of the simple fact that they are so local. Something which interests me here, won't be of any interest to someone 5 miles away in a different ward, let alone someone the other side of Wales. Having said that, some of the fights are too interesting to ignore.

Already we have two incidents of alleged fraud in Swansea. The Tory candidate has been accused by opponents of fraud- something to do with the names on his nomination card, and an un-named woman has been arrested for electoral fraud. We have no name, no details of the allegation and no knowledge of what party she was working/campaigning for. Will we find out before May 1st? Hopefully yes!

Another interesting battle is in Gwynedd, where Plaid's only council is under threat from a new party, Llais Gwynedd (it used to be Llais y Bobl, until someone pointed out that The People's Voice already existed in Blaenau Gwent). The Plaid-ruled Council is in the midst of a primary school re-organisation which has many people up in arms. I don't know enough about the state of education in Gwynedd to comment on who's right and wrong, but Llais Gwynedd interests me, just as the People's Voice did. Llais Gwynedd was set up by a man called Aeron Jones, a man I have only heard speak through his keyboard (via Maes-e).

Unfortunately, after a week of posting on that site he has now deleted all his posts, probably after a rollocking from someone in his party with a little more political nous. Within a few posts the founder of Llais Gwynedd had managed to turn every reader against his own party. His posts were filled with innuendos, scandal rumours and, apparently, lies. His best comment was, to be frank, hilariously shocking.

Translated from Welsh, the comment reads...

In Zimbabwe they opened the polling boxes on the night, then count the votes the next morning. And we all know what happened there.Thank God that we live in Gwynedd where they keep the boxes closed until Friday morning without breaking the seal, or do they open the boxes on Thursday night and leave them open until the next morning - I wonder!

That's right, the founder of a political party with high expectations of success on May 1st is accusing the Plaid controlled Gwynedd Council of preparing a Zimbabwe-style electoral fraud!

I wonder what Mr Aeron Jones would make of the two alleged fraudsters down Swansea way? Probably compare them to Mussolini or Stalin I guess!

Note: Ordovicius also deals with the subject of Llais Gwynedd here

To Speak or Not to Speak?

Recent discussions have brought my old pet-peeve to the fore - the culture of parties acting like a block and not an individual. The Cynical Dragon lashes out against Plaid for being against the St Athan project stating:

Ignoring the 'school of death' rubbish, are Plaid Cymru really standing against an £11bn investment in Wales? Of course they are.

Um...no they're not. Plaid supports the St Athan project. What the Dragon is doing is mixing the personal opinion of one politician (Jill Evans) with her whole party.

Peter Black, being a politician himself, has no such confusion. He clearly understands that Jill Evans' stance is her own opinion. He also points to a similar incident over the Aerolink Wales exhibition, which was welcomed by Ieuan Wyn Jones but criticised by Plaid Councillor Gwenllian Landsdown (she is now also the Chief-Exec, but was just a Councillor when she criticised the exhibition). He finishes his post on the matter with this line:

Although the two politicians are perfectly entitled to express their point of view, this lack of discipline and inconsistency within Plaid surely militates against them becoming a serious party of government.

"Lack of discipline"? What are Plaid supposed to do, bring out the old slipper when one of their representative disagrees with the party line? It's clear that Peter Black is a believer in the "follow the leader" type politics which is so prevalent at the Assembly, where politicians vote with their party not with their own opinions.

Have you ever watched AM's voting? It is the most predictable event on earth - they will all follow the party line like sheep. While this is mostly true about all politicians, at least in London MP's will rebel if they feel strongly about something - has that ever, once, happened in Cardiff? That's a serious question and I would love to know if someone has the answer. Has an AM ever voted against his party line, apart from when they've been give a free vote (such as the badger-cull)? Is there actually any point in our AM's turning up to vote? It would be easier, and just as honest, for the four leaders plus Trish Law to meet in a side-room and declare which way their voting block will go.

I may not agree with Jill Evans' stance - but I would have been disgusted if she'd have kept silence over an issue that she feels so strongly about. The same goes for Gwenllian Landsdown. We vote for politicians not political parties.

Ironic Woe

Poor old Green Arrow - this voter is dejected to see that there is no BNP candidate standing in his ward on May 1st but, all credit to the man, he will still vote as he sees it as something important. While I think his views on politics is despicable you've got to feel for the poor man when he says...

"my vote for the BNP handed the Regional Assembly seat to a Pakistani candidate for Plaid Cymru"

Poor sod!

Teacher Tantrum

So a whole shedload of Welsh teachers went on strike yesterday, along with driving test examiners and all kinds of other public sector workers. Apparently their 2.4% rise is tantamount to a pay cut when you take into account the rise in GDP.

Fair enough. I have no idea what a teacher's average wage is so I'll trust them when they say it's not enough. But two things annoys me about this strike, one personal and one not. The latter annoyance is the timing of the strike - just before exams start. Kids who need every possible second of school time to prepare for their exams (because let's be honest - they won't be studying that much at home!) are sent home for the day because their teacher is at the picket line. The pay increase was announced in January - why couldn't they have gone on strike earlier? It's like the Metropolitan Police going on strike on May Day or the Fire Brigade going on strike on 5th November.

I hope that Year 11 teachers thought long and hard about whether to attend those classes or stay out all day - from the news reports it seems that at least some Year 11 teachers did turn up even though they supported the strike - good for them.

The other annoyance is personal - new teachers get a starting salary of £24k (more than me) and get 12 weeks holiday a year (much more than me) - when do I get to strike!

FA Relent

The English FA have announced that Cardiff City will get to play in Europe if they win the FA Cup and that Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau will be played prior to kick off in the Final.

I understand the FAW's view that it as a step backwards for the big three (or is that big two now) to qualify for Europe through the English league system as they would be able to qualify every year if allowed through the Welsh system, but I think this is the right answer. The clubs play in the English league, and allowing them to qualify through the Welsh system would be unfair and hypocritical.

As for the anthem - hooray for a bit of common sense. While you could find plenty of arguments for not singing it - this being the English Cup, tradition etc etc - there was never any real reason for not doing it. It's not going to hurt anyone and it will be respectful to Cardiff City - why bother arguing against it?

Now let's just hope Cardiff can thrash Portsmouth and not let all this go to waste eh!

Murder She Rode

Quick follow up to the phantom horse-slasher story. A few days on and clearly the BBC, Mule and co have decided to just ignore their mess-ups. The only ones to change a thing were BBC Arlein who changed their quotation of "Sais Mas" to the correct "Cai Maes Sais" - the rest of their article makes it sound like "Cai Maes Sais" is a perfectly common anti-English sentiment!

The Western Mail has decided the best way out is not to make a correction but to print a few letters bringing up the translation points - one of which was extremely scathing of the Western Mail!(Oh and a warning to Cwlcymro at Maes-e, the guy who wrote the fourth letter here is taking credit for your investigation work!)

Many blogs have posted on the matter, with the Old Fart very helpfully giving examples of proper anti-English quotes to assist the next person who wants to pretend to be a Welsh nash!

One part of the story which did make me laugh a bit was the horse's owner giving the teary eyed story of how "Hope loved being around people but now I can’t get near her. She is terrified"

have a look at that picture up there, not only does the horse seem pretty comfortable around her, she's even got her hand on his bloody nose!

I really do hope the Police catch whoever did this, just so that we can have an answer to our riddle!

On a personal note, the last post was the most viewed and most commented post ever on this blog (by a country mile!) Just goes to show that however important the going ons of the Assembly and London are, all you need to really captivate some interest is a poor hurt animal and a healthy dose of scepticism and mystery! (oh, and yes, I do know the headline puns are getting worse!)

Inspector Horse

So the BBC, Western Mail, South Wales Echo, icWales,the Daily Mail and even the Tivyside Advertiser are incensed by the Welsh nationalist thug who "slashed" a horse's nose and wrote racist graffiti on his stable wall. The stupid idiots who, according to all these articles, wrote "English Out" on the wall didn't even realise that the couple were English-speaking Welshmen! According to the horse's owner the area is mostly Welsh-speaking and the vile thug who carried out this attack must have mistaken english-speaking for being English.

Here's a picture of the barn and the graffiti.


Now, if you are a Welsh speaker you will probably have already noticed that something doesn't quite add up here. If you are a monoglot, let me clue you in. See those words on the side of the barn? They don't say "English Out", whatever the respected media named above might tell you. I'd love to tell you what it says, but I can't. Why? Because it doesn't say anything. It is gibberish.

Now Sais clearly means "Englishman", every Welshman knows that. But "Maes"? Well that means field (or town square). "Cai" doesn't mean anything, it is not a Welsh word (it is actually a Welsh name, like Kai in English). So what is the painter trying to say? Beats me!

Could he be saying Cer Mas Sais (Get Out Englishman)? Or maybe Gai'r Maes Sais (Can I Have The Field Englishman)?. Western Mail thinks it says Cer Maes Sais (Go Field Englishman, makes no grammatical sense in Welsh either!) or Cae Mas Sais (Field Go Englishman). The answer is no. This isn't some mis-spelling or typo, most of those suggestions don't makes sense (Go Field Englishman?) and the ones that do (Cer Mas Sais) do not sound anything like Cai Maes Sais and are way too far off to be the words of a grammatically challenged Welsh-speaker or even a poor learner.

Clearly someone up in Trinity Mirror has realised something is wrong, they just havn't quite put their finger on it. The South Wales Echo would have us believe that it's common slang for "English Out" while icWales disagrees and tells us it's actually very old Welsh for "English Out". The Western Mail disagrees again, telling us that the writing doesn't say "English Out" but "English Out of This Field". Top prize for awful reporting must go to BBC Newyddion Arlein (Welsh BBC News) which actually quotes the graffiti as saying "Sais Mas" (English Out) even though the picture of the actual words used above comes from the BBC!

As a Welsh speaker I can assure you that those words certainly don't say "English Out". Not in slang, not in old Welsh, not in proper Welsh and not in misspelt Welsh. Or do they?

This is where things get interesting. I'm sure you all know of the infamous InterTran, one of those diabolical online translators. To you and me "Get out Englishman" clearly doesn't translate as "Cai Maes Sais" - but to InterTran that is exactly what it translates as.

So let us get this straight, whoever painted that slogan had to use an infamously awful online translator to work out how to translate "Get Out Englishman"? What nationalist worth his salt can't say or spell that?

Something smells here, any budding detectives among you?

(Congrats to Cwlcymro at Maes-E for making the InterTran connection - oh and I'm sorry about the god awful headline pun!)

The Case For The Union

Gordon Brown made a strong case for the Union in his speech to his Scottish party last week. Here's part of it...

"But what matters even more are the common values we share across the United Kingdom: values we have developed together over the years that are rooted in liberty, in fairness and tolerance, in enterprise, in civic initiative and internationalism.

These values live in the popularity of our common institutions from the NHS, the BBC, to the Queen - and even more recently in UK-wide support for the Olympics, Children in Need, Comic Relief, Make Poverty History and action on climate change"

In other words - don't vote SNP in May or you won't get to wear a red nose once a year!

Spot the Difference

When the white paper that eventually became the Government of Wales Act 2006 was published the words used to describe it by many were a mess, a fudge and a compromise.

As the white paper became a bill and then statute there was many a non-Labour voice criticising it for being confusing and that it would result in no-one quite knowing what the Assembly could or could not do.

While the constant bickering between London and Cardiff over the LCO's suggest those critics may be right, it's hard to blame the GoWA2006's muddles for the mess this week concerning the protection of NHS staff.

London wants extra laws to protect NHS staff from abuse by patients and guests. These were published with fanfare last week and it was only a matter of time before someone asked whether Welsh nurses would get the same protection. Welsh health Minister Edwina Hart thought not, and the London Justice Department semed to agree, although they were hopeful of convincing the Assembly to copy the new laws so that they apply in Wales. A Ministry of Justice statement said:

"Health is a devolved matter in Wales ... We are discussing the issue of the extension of this provision to NHS premises in Wales with the Department of Health, Wales Office and the Welsh Assembly Government."

But wait a sec, we're talking about new criminal laws here, not Health policy. Surely that has nothing to do with the Welsh Assembly? It was only last month that Peter Hain was slapping Rhodri Morgan down over the issue of a smacing ban, saying that it was outside the Assembly's powers. How can the Assembly decide whether or not they want to implement these new criminal laws then? 24 hours later, cue a second statement from the Ministry of Justice...

"Health is a devolved matter in Wales ... We are discussing the issue of the extension of this provision to NHS premises in Wales with the Wales Office and the Department of Health".

The two obvious questions here, firstly who was it that made the rushed phone call to the MoJ to correct them, I'm prety sure it wasn't Edwina or Rhodri! Secondly how on earth was our Health Minister, along with the London Ministry of Justice, unaware that Wales were not abe to make its own criminal law!

(Thanks to Betsan for the quotes of the statements)

Religious Rebels

With the Six Nations gone for another 12 months and Hen Ferchetan comfortable in her new home it's time to discuss the world again. A lot has happened while I've been away, and much of it has passed me by for the simple fact that the only thng my brain has been concerned with is how is Lee Byrne suddenly a good player, why didn't we get Warren Gatland 3 years ago and how gutted must England be that Shaun Edwards works this side of the Severn!

The one big issue that's caught my attention recently is the Embryo debate going through Parliament. Our new first secretary has hinted that he will resign rather than vote for a bill he disagree with. Firstly, all kudos to Murphy if he does this, it's always refreshing to see a politician give up power to vote as he feels is right. Of course, he might not actually resign, the hint may well have been an attempt to force Brown into giving a free vote.

Current gossip seems to suggest that Brown will relent and allow Catholic Labour MP's to vote against this bill. This simply does not seem right to me. While I would always prefer MP's to vote as they fit and not as their masters see fit, as long as the system of whips continue it should apply to all matters. How is it right that an MP can vote with his conscious on the Embryo matter but not on top up fees? Are we now saying that religion is more important than education? And there I was thinking that there was supposed to be a separation between Church and State!

I'll Be Back!

A mixture of the Hen Ferchetan moving house, wasting the weekends watching the rugby and having several important pieces of work in urgent need of sorting out is at fault for the lack of postins recently!

Wait patiently until the Six Nations is over and I promise I'll be back!